Statistics / Football / Switzerland. AXA Women’s Super League / Zürich W vs Young Boys W

Zürich W vs Young Boys W Statistics & Analysis

Zürich W Zürich W
Sep 09, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 85%
Young Boys W Young Boys W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Young Boys W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 03, 2026 · 08:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6751293

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Zürich W 1–1 Young Boys W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Young Boys W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Zürich W (1X2) 34.2 48.8 -14.6
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.1 +4.6
Young Boys W (1X2) 36.1 26.1 +10.0
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 61.4 -13.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.6 +13.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.6%. The difference — about 13.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Zürich W (1X2) 1.82 1.82 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
Young Boys W (1X2) 3.4 3.4 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.49 1.49 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.37 2.37 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: AXA Women’s Super League
  • Fixture: Zürich W vs Young Boys W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Zürich W 1.28 — Young Boys W 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.1% · Probability edge: +12.7 pts · Est. EV: +26.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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AXA Women’s Super League AXA Women’s Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Servette Chênois W 7 5 1 1 16
2 Zürich W 7 4 3 0 15
3 Grasshopper W 7 4 2 1 14
4 Young Boys W 7 3 3 1 12
5 Basel W 7 3 3 1 12
6 Luzern W 7 3 2 2 11
7 Yverdon 7 1 2 4 5
8 Rapperswil Jona 7 1 2 4 5
9 St. Gallen W 7 1 1 5 4
10 Aarau 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zürich W 7 20 6 +14 15
2 Grasshopper W 7 19 7 +12 14
3 Servette Chênois W 7 15 8 +7 16
4 Young Boys W 7 12 9 +3 12
5 Luzern W 7 12 9 +3 11
6 Yverdon 7 11 14 -3 5
7 Basel W 7 10 7 +3 12
8 Rapperswil Jona 7 10 18 -8 5
9 St. Gallen W 7 7 18 -11 4
10 Aarau 7 5 25 -20 1
AXA Women’s Super League Switzerland. AXA Women’s Super League Predictions