Legia W vs Pogon Szczecin W Statistics & Analysis

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Legia W

Aug 01, 2026 - 11:15

1 1.09

2 1.51

xG Accuracy: 85%

Pogon Szczecin W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Pogon Szczecin W Pogon Szczecin W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1792929

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Pogon Szczecin W win · Legia W 1–2 Pogon Szczecin W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Ekstraliga Women
Fixture: Legia W vs Pogon Szczecin W
Kickoff: 2026-08-01 11:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 25.8% · Draw 28.9% · Away 45.3%
xG (showing): Legia W 1.09 — Pogon Szczecin W 1.51 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.3% · No 46.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ekstraliga Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Górnik Łęczna W	4	4	0	0	12
2	GKS Katowice W	4	3	1	0	10
3	Pogon Szczecin W	5	3	0	2	9
4	Legia W	5	3	0	2	9
5	Akademia Piłkarska LG	5	3	0	2	9
6	Czarni Sosnowiec W	3	2	1	0	7
7	UJ Krakow W	4	2	1	1	7
8	Lech Poznan W	4	1	0	3	3
9	UKS Łódź	4	0	2	2	2
10	Slask Wroclaw W	5	0	2	3	2
11	Rekord Bielsko-Biala W	5	0	2	3	2
12	Sleza Wroclaw W	4	0	1	3	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Legia W	5	14	11	+3	9
2	Górnik Łęczna W	4	13	2	+11	12
3	GKS Katowice W	4	13	5	+8	10
4	Pogon Szczecin W	5	13	7	+6	9
5	Czarni Sosnowiec W	3	11	3	+8	7
6	Akademia Piłkarska LG	5	7	7	0	9
7	UJ Krakow W	4	6	7	-1	7
8	Lech Poznan W	4	5	12	-7	3
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala W	5	5	14	-9	2
10	Slask Wroclaw W	5	4	11	-7	2
11	Sleza Wroclaw W	4	3	9	-6	1
12	UKS Łódź	4	2	8	-6	2