Gandzasar vs Ararat Statistics & Analysis

Gandzasar

Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.35

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 56%

Ararat

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Gandzasar Ararat ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7445909

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Ararat win · Gandzasar 0–2 Ararat

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Gandzasar vs Ararat
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
xG (showing): Gandzasar 1.35 — Ararat 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.4% · Probability edge: +3.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Noah	7	7	0	0	21
2	Pyunik Yerevan	7	5	2	0	17
3	Ararat-Armenia	7	5	1	1	16
4	Alashkert	7	4	2	1	14
5	Sardarapat	7	3	2	2	11
6	Shirak	7	3	1	3	10
7	FC Urartu	7	2	2	3	8
8	BKMA	7	2	1	4	7
9	Ararat	7	2	0	5	6
10	Van	7	1	1	5	4
11	Gandzasar	7	1	0	6	3
12	Syunik	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Noah	7	19	5	+14	21
2	Alashkert	7	15	3	+12	14
3	Pyunik Yerevan	7	15	5	+10	17
4	Ararat-Armenia	7	14	7	+7	16
5	Sardarapat	7	13	11	+2	11
6	Shirak	7	10	7	+3	10
7	FC Urartu	7	9	10	-1	8
8	Gandzasar	7	8	17	-9	3
9	BKMA	7	7	9	-2	7
10	Ararat	7	5	13	-8	6
11	Van	7	4	19	-15	4
12	Syunik	7	3	16	-13	2