Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Durango vs Piratas

Durango vs Piratas Statistics & Analysis

Durango Durango
Aug 08, 2026 - 01:00
0 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 43%
⚽
Piratas
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Durango Piratas ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 00:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2806601

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Piratas win · Durango 0–3 Piratas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Durango vs Piratas
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Durango 1.32 — Piratas 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monarcas 9 7 0 2 21
2 CA La Paz 10 6 2 2 20
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 6 2 2 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 5 2 3 17
5 Piratas 10 4 3 3 15
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 4 3 3 15
7 Cancún 9 4 2 3 14
8 Tapatío 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorados 9 3 4 2 13
10 Venados FC 9 4 1 4 13
11 Durango 9 3 2 4 11
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 3 2 5 11
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 10
14 Tlaxcala 9 2 2 5 8
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 7
16 Tepatitlán 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CA La Paz 10 23 11 +12 20
2 Venados FC 9 22 19 +3 13
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 21 13 +8 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 21 15 +6 17
5 Monarcas 9 19 9 +10 21
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 19 18 +1 15
7 Cancún 9 17 11 +6 14
8 Dorados 9 17 13 +4 13
9 Tapatío 9 17 14 +3 14
10 Tlaxcala 9 14 21 -7 8
11 Piratas 10 12 10 +2 15
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 11 16 -5 11
13 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 11 18 -7 7
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 8 18 -10 10
15 Durango 9 6 9 -3 11
16 Tepatitlán 9 5 28 -23 3
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions