Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG

Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG Statistics & Analysis

Venados FC Venados FC
Oct 10, 2026 - 23:00
1 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 85%
Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Venados FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 04:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13253876

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Venados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Venados FC 1.36 — Leones Negros UDG 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 35.6% · Probability edge: +16.2 pts · Est. EV: +41.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 CA La Paz 12 7 2 3 23
2 Leones Negros UDG 11 7 2 2 23
3 Monarcas 12 7 2 3 23
4 Venados FC 11 6 1 4 19
5 Piratas 12 5 3 4 18
6 Mineros de Zacatecas 11 5 2 4 17
7 Cancún 11 5 2 4 17
8 Durango 11 5 2 4 17
9 Correcaminos Uat 12 4 4 4 16
10 Tlaxcala 12 4 3 5 15
11 Tapatío 11 4 2 5 14
12 Dorados 11 3 4 4 13
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12 4 1 7 13
14 CDS Tampico Madero 11 3 2 6 11
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 11 1 5 5 8
16 Tepatitlán 11 2 1 8 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CA La Paz 12 28 15 +13 23
2 Leones Negros UDG 11 27 16 +11 23
3 Venados FC 11 26 21 +5 19
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 11 23 19 +4 17
5 Tlaxcala 12 23 25 -2 15
6 Monarcas 12 22 13 +9 23
7 Correcaminos Uat 12 20 20 0 16
8 Dorados 11 20 20 0 13
9 Cancún 11 19 15 +4 17
10 Tapatío 11 19 19 0 14
11 Piratas 12 18 14 +4 18
12 CDS Tampico Madero 11 12 19 -7 11
13 Durango 11 11 11 0 17
14 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 11 11 18 -7 8
15 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12 10 23 -13 13
16 Tepatitlán 11 9 30 -21 7
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions