Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados Statistics & Analysis

Leones Negros UDG

Oct 04, 2026 - 18:00

6 1.39

3 1.21

xG Accuracy: 17%

Dorados

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11258418

Closing Odds 1.59

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Leones Negros UDG win · Leones Negros UDG 6–3 Dorados

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Dorados (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Dorados (1X2) by about 12.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Leones Negros UDG (1X2)	39.5	59.5	-20.0
Draw (1X2)	29.5	22.0	+7.5
Dorados (1X2)	31.0	18.5	+12.5
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	60.6	-12.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	39.4	+12.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.0% on Dorados (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.5%. The difference — about 12.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Leones Negros UDG (1X2)	1.59	1.59
Draw (1X2)	4.31	4.31
Dorados (1X2)	5.11	5.11
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	1.57
Under 2.5 goals	2.42	2.42

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga de Expansión MX
Fixture: Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados
Kickoff: 2026-10-04 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Leones Negros UDG 1.39 — Dorados 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monarcas	10	7	0	3	21
2	CA La Paz	11	6	2	3	20
3	Leones Negros UDG	10	6	2	2	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	19
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	5	2	3	17
6	Correcaminos Uat	11	4	4	3	16
7	Piratas	10	4	3	3	15
8	Cancún	10	4	2	4	14
9	Tapatío	9	4	2	3	14
10	Durango	10	4	2	4	14
11	Dorados	10	3	4	3	13
12	Tlaxcala	10	3	2	5	11
13	CDS Tampico Madero	11	3	2	6	11
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	10	3	1	6	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	8
16	Tepatitlán	10	2	0	8	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Venados FC	11	26	21	+5	19
2	CA La Paz	11	24	13	+11	20
3	Leones Negros UDG	10	21	13	+8	20
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	10	21	15	+6	17
5	Monarcas	10	20	11	+9	21
6	Correcaminos Uat	11	19	18	+1	16
7	Cancún	10	18	15	+3	14
8	Tlaxcala	10	18	22	-4	11
9	Tapatío	9	17	14	+3	14
10	Dorados	10	17	14	+3	13
11	Piratas	10	12	10	+2	15
12	CDS Tampico Madero	11	12	19	-7	11
13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	11	18	-7	8
14	Alebrijes de Oaxaca	10	8	18	-10	10
15	Tepatitlán	10	8	29	-21	6
16	Durango	10	7	9	-2	14