Statistics / Football / Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX / Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío Statistics & Analysis

Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Aug 28, 2026 - 01:00
1 1.25
1 1.35
xG Accuracy: 85%
Tapatío Tapatío
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tapatío Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4913776

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Tapatío
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 12.17 percentage points on Alebrijes de Oaxaca (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 4.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (1X2) 32.9 31.1 +1.8
Draw (1X2) 29.6 26.4 +3.2
Tapatío (1X2) 37.6 42.5 -4.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 52.5 -4.3
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 47.5 +4.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 47.5%. The difference — about 4.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (1X2) 2.19 3.06 -12.2
Draw (1X2) 3.67 3.61 +0.5
Tapatío (1X2) 3.07 2.24 +11.6
Over 2.5 goals 1.78 1.83 +1.1
Under 2.5 goals 1.88 2.02 -1.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga de Expansión MX
  • Fixture: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 01:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.25 — Tapatío 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.7% · Probability edge: +4.1 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Expansión MX Liga de Expansión MX — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Monarcas 9 7 0 2 21
2 CA La Paz 10 6 2 2 20
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 6 2 2 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 5 2 3 17
5 Piratas 10 4 3 3 15
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 4 3 3 15
7 Cancún 9 4 2 3 14
8 Tapatío 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorados 9 3 4 2 13
10 Venados FC 9 4 1 4 13
11 Durango 9 3 2 4 11
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 3 2 5 11
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 3 1 6 10
14 Tlaxcala 9 2 2 5 8
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 1 4 5 7
16 Tepatitlán 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CA La Paz 10 23 11 +12 20
2 Venados FC 9 22 19 +3 13
3 Leones Negros UDG 10 21 13 +8 20
4 Mineros de Zacatecas 10 21 15 +6 17
5 Monarcas 9 19 9 +10 21
6 Correcaminos Uat 10 19 18 +1 15
7 Cancún 9 17 11 +6 14
8 Dorados 9 17 13 +4 13
9 Tapatío 9 17 14 +3 14
10 Tlaxcala 9 14 21 -7 8
11 Piratas 10 12 10 +2 15
12 CDS Tampico Madero 10 11 16 -5 11
13 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 10 11 18 -7 7
14 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 10 8 18 -10 10
15 Durango 9 6 9 -3 11
16 Tepatitlán 9 5 28 -23 3
Liga de Expansión MX Mexico. Liga de Expansión MX Predictions