Statistics / Football / South-Korea. FA Cup / Suwon City FC vs Pyeongchang United

Suwon City FC vs Pyeongchang United Statistics & Analysis

Suwon City FC Suwon City FC
Jul 15, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 52%
Pyeongchang United Pyeongchang United
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pyeongchang United Suwon City FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 20:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1761568

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.81
CLV Pending
Final Result Suwon City FC win · Suwon City FC 3–2 Pyeongchang United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 35.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FA Cup
  • Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Pyeongchang United
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-15 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Suwon City FC 1.29 — Pyeongchang United 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 24.5% · Probability edge: +27.3 pts · Est. EV: +117.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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