Statistics / Football / France. Feminine Division 1 / Montpellier W vs Marseille W

Montpellier W vs Marseille W Statistics & Analysis

Montpellier W Montpellier W
Sep 19, 2026 - 19:00
0 0.86
0 0.89
xG Accuracy: 62%
Marseille W Marseille W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Draw ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8708552

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Montpellier W 0–0 Marseille W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Montpellier W (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 25.5 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Montpellier W (1X2) 30.7 28.8 +1.9
Draw (1X2) 36.9 26.1 +10.9
Marseille W (1X2) 32.4 45.2 -12.8
Over 2.5 goals 25.6 51.1 -25.5
Under 2.5 goals 74.4 48.9 +25.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 74.4% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 48.9%. The difference — about 25.5 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Montpellier W (1X2) 3.19 3.19 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Marseille W (1X2) 2.03 2.03 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.85 1.85 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Feminine Division 1
  • Fixture: Montpellier W vs Marseille W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.7% · Draw 36.9% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Montpellier W 0.86 — Marseille W 0.89 (total xG ≈ 1.75)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 74.4% · Implied: 49.4% · Probability edge: +25.0 pts · Est. EV: +43.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 35.7% · No 64.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (17.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Feminine Division 1 Feminine Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lyon W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Paris Saint Germain W 3 3 0 0 9
3 Marseille W 3 2 1 0 7
4 Paris FC W 3 2 0 1 6
5 Montpellier W 3 1 1 1 4
6 FC Fleury 91 W 3 1 1 1 4
7 Strasbourg W 3 1 0 2 3
8 Le Havre W 3 1 0 2 3
9 Saint-Malo W 3 1 0 2 3
10 Lens W 3 0 1 2 1
11 Toulouse W 3 0 1 2 1
12 Nantes W 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 3 22 3 +19 9
2 Paris Saint Germain W 3 5 0 +5 9
3 Montpellier W 3 5 2 +3 4
4 Paris FC W 3 5 7 -2 6
5 FC Fleury 91 W 3 4 8 -4 4
6 Toulouse W 3 4 9 -5 1
7 Marseille W 3 3 1 +2 7
8 Saint-Malo W 3 3 5 -2 3
9 Strasbourg W 3 3 6 -3 3
10 Lens W 3 3 6 -3 1
11 Le Havre W 3 3 10 -7 3
12 Nantes W 3 1 4 -3 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 3 1.4 0.3 +1.1 9
2 FC Fleury 91 W 3 0.3 1.4 -1.1 4
3 Paris Saint Germain W 3 — — — 9
4 Marseille W 3 — — — 7
5 Paris FC W 3 — — — 6
6 Montpellier W 3 — — — 4
7 Strasbourg W 3 — — — 3
8 Le Havre W 3 — — — 3
9 Saint-Malo W 3 — — — 3
10 Lens W 3 — — — 1
11 Toulouse W 3 — — — 1
12 Nantes W 3 — — — 1
Feminine Division 1 France. Feminine Division 1 Predictions