Le Havre W vs Lyon W Statistics & Analysis

Le Havre W

Sep 18, 2026 - 17:00

1 0.64

8 1.11

xG Accuracy: 14%

Lyon W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (9 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Lyon W Lyon W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 1-8 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8209847

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Lyon W win · Le Havre W 1–8 Lyon W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Feminine Division 1
Fixture: Le Havre W vs Lyon W
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 19.5% · Draw 35.3% · Away 45.2%
xG (showing): Le Havre W 0.64 — Lyon W 1.11 (total xG ≈ 1.75)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Feminine Division 1 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lyon W	3	3	0	0	9
2	Paris Saint Germain W	3	3	0	0	9
3	Marseille W	3	2	1	0	7
4	Paris FC W	3	2	0	1	6
5	Montpellier W	3	1	1	1	4
6	FC Fleury 91 W	3	1	1	1	4
7	Strasbourg W	3	1	0	2	3
8	Le Havre W	3	1	0	2	3
9	Saint-Malo W	3	1	0	2	3
10	Lens W	3	0	1	2	1
11	Toulouse W	3	0	1	2	1
12	Nantes W	3	0	1	2	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lyon W	3	22	3	+19	9
2	Paris Saint Germain W	3	5	0	+5	9
3	Montpellier W	3	5	2	+3	4
4	Paris FC W	3	5	7	-2	6
5	FC Fleury 91 W	3	4	8	-4	4
6	Toulouse W	3	4	9	-5	1
7	Marseille W	3	3	1	+2	7
8	Saint-Malo W	3	3	5	-2	3
9	Strasbourg W	3	3	6	-3	3
10	Lens W	3	3	6	-3	1
11	Le Havre W	3	3	10	-7	3
12	Nantes W	3	1	4	-3	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Lyon W	3	1.4	0.3	+1.1	9
2	FC Fleury 91 W	3	0.3	1.4	-1.1	4
3	Paris Saint Germain W	3	—	—	—	9
4	Marseille W	3	—	—	—	7
5	Paris FC W	3	—	—	—	6
6	Montpellier W	3	—	—	—	4
7	Strasbourg W	3	—	—	—	3
8	Le Havre W	3	—	—	—	3
9	Saint-Malo W	3	—	—	—	3
10	Lens W	3	—	—	—	1
11	Toulouse W	3	—	—	—	1
12	Nantes W	3	—	—	—	1