Statistics / Football / France. Feminine Division 1 / Marseille W vs Le Havre W

Marseille W vs Le Havre W Statistics & Analysis

Marseille W Marseille W
Sep 05, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Le Havre W Le Havre W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Marseille W Marseille W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 04:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6168593

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Marseille W win · Marseille W 1–0 Le Havre W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Le Havre W (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Le Havre W (1X2) by about 9.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Marseille W (1X2) 38.5 57.1 -18.7
Draw (1X2) 29.6 20.5 +9.1
Le Havre W (1X2) 31.9 22.4 +9.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 55.4 -7.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 44.6 +7.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Le Havre W (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.4%. The difference — about 9.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Marseille W (1X2) 1.62 1.62 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.52 4.52 0.0
Le Havre W (1X2) 4.14 4.14 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.12 2.12 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Feminine Division 1
  • Fixture: Marseille W vs Le Havre W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Marseille W 1.37 — Le Havre W 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Feminine Division 1 Feminine Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lyon W 3 3 0 0 9
2 Paris Saint Germain W 3 3 0 0 9
3 Marseille W 3 2 1 0 7
4 Paris FC W 3 2 0 1 6
5 Montpellier W 3 1 1 1 4
6 FC Fleury 91 W 3 1 1 1 4
7 Strasbourg W 3 1 0 2 3
8 Le Havre W 3 1 0 2 3
9 Saint-Malo W 3 1 0 2 3
10 Lens W 3 0 1 2 1
11 Toulouse W 3 0 1 2 1
12 Nantes W 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 3 22 3 +19 9
2 Paris Saint Germain W 3 5 0 +5 9
3 Montpellier W 3 5 2 +3 4
4 Paris FC W 3 5 7 -2 6
5 FC Fleury 91 W 3 4 8 -4 4
6 Toulouse W 3 4 9 -5 1
7 Marseille W 3 3 1 +2 7
8 Saint-Malo W 3 3 5 -2 3
9 Strasbourg W 3 3 6 -3 3
10 Lens W 3 3 6 -3 1
11 Le Havre W 3 3 10 -7 3
12 Nantes W 3 1 4 -3 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lyon W 3 1.4 0.3 +1.1 9
2 FC Fleury 91 W 3 0.3 1.4 -1.1 4
3 Paris Saint Germain W 3 — — — 9
4 Marseille W 3 — — — 7
5 Paris FC W 3 — — — 6
6 Montpellier W 3 — — — 4
7 Strasbourg W 3 — — — 3
8 Le Havre W 3 — — — 3
9 Saint-Malo W 3 — — — 3
10 Lens W 3 — — — 1
11 Toulouse W 3 — — — 1
12 Nantes W 3 — — — 1
Feminine Division 1 France. Feminine Division 1 Predictions