Statistics / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions

Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions Statistics & Analysis

Treowen Stars Treowen Stars
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.38
2 1.22
xG Accuracy: 73%
Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Treowen Stars Ynyshir Albions ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11238034

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ynyshir Albions win · Treowen Stars 1–2 Ynyshir Albions
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Treowen Stars vs Ynyshir Albions
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Treowen Stars 1.38 — Ynyshir Albions 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 7 5 2 0 17
2 Aberystwyth Town 7 5 1 1 16
3 Pontypridd Town 7 5 1 1 16
4 Caerau (Ely) 9 5 1 3 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 14
7 Treowen Stars 8 4 1 3 13
8 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 10
11 Caerphilly Athletic 8 2 2 4 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 7
14 Llantwit Major 7 2 1 4 7
15 Pontardawe Town 7 2 0 5 6
16 llanelli AFC 10 0 2 8 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 7 22 5 +17 17
2 Caerau (Ely) 9 21 18 +3 16
3 Carmarthen Town 9 20 19 +1 14
4 Aberystwyth Town 7 19 7 +12 16
5 Pontypridd Town 7 18 12 +6 16
6 Treowen Stars 8 17 16 +1 13
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 15 14 +1 10
8 Afan Lido 10 13 17 -4 11
9 Baglan Dragons 10 11 11 0 16
10 Pontardawe Town 7 11 14 -3 6
11 Newport City 6 9 5 +4 7
12 Cardiff Draconians 6 8 11 -3 7
13 Caerphilly Athletic 8 8 14 -6 8
14 Ynyshir Albions 7 7 6 +1 10
15 llanelli AFC 10 7 27 -20 2
16 Llantwit Major 7 6 16 -10 7
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions