Statistics / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic

Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic Statistics & Analysis

Swansea University Swansea University
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Swansea University Swansea University ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11237982

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Swansea University win · Swansea University 3–1 Caerphilly Athletic
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Swansea University vs Caerphilly Athletic
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Swansea University 1.32 — Caerphilly Athletic 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 7 5 2 0 17
2 Aberystwyth Town 7 5 1 1 16
3 Pontypridd Town 7 5 1 1 16
4 Caerau (Ely) 9 5 1 3 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 14
7 Treowen Stars 8 4 1 3 13
8 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 10
11 Caerphilly Athletic 8 2 2 4 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 7
14 Llantwit Major 7 2 1 4 7
15 Pontardawe Town 7 2 0 5 6
16 llanelli AFC 10 0 2 8 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 7 22 5 +17 17
2 Caerau (Ely) 9 21 18 +3 16
3 Carmarthen Town 9 20 19 +1 14
4 Aberystwyth Town 7 19 7 +12 16
5 Pontypridd Town 7 18 12 +6 16
6 Treowen Stars 8 17 16 +1 13
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 15 14 +1 10
8 Afan Lido 10 13 17 -4 11
9 Baglan Dragons 10 11 11 0 16
10 Pontardawe Town 7 11 14 -3 6
11 Newport City 6 9 5 +4 7
12 Cardiff Draconians 6 8 11 -3 7
13 Caerphilly Athletic 8 8 14 -6 8
14 Ynyshir Albions 7 7 6 +1 10
15 llanelli AFC 10 7 27 -20 2
16 Llantwit Major 7 6 16 -10 7
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions