Statistics / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City

Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City Statistics & Analysis

Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 85%
Newport City Newport City
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cardiff Draconians Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11237853

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Cardiff Draconians 1–1 Newport City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Cardiff Draconians vs Newport City
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Cardiff Draconians 1.41 — Newport City 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +9.5 pts · Est. EV: +20.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 7 5 2 0 17
2 Aberystwyth Town 7 5 1 1 16
3 Pontypridd Town 7 5 1 1 16
4 Caerau (Ely) 9 5 1 3 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 14
7 Treowen Stars 8 4 1 3 13
8 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 10
11 Caerphilly Athletic 8 2 2 4 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 7
14 Llantwit Major 7 2 1 4 7
15 Pontardawe Town 7 2 0 5 6
16 llanelli AFC 10 0 2 8 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 7 22 5 +17 17
2 Caerau (Ely) 9 21 18 +3 16
3 Carmarthen Town 9 20 19 +1 14
4 Aberystwyth Town 7 19 7 +12 16
5 Pontypridd Town 7 18 12 +6 16
6 Treowen Stars 8 17 16 +1 13
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 15 14 +1 10
8 Afan Lido 10 13 17 -4 11
9 Baglan Dragons 10 11 11 0 16
10 Pontardawe Town 7 11 14 -3 6
11 Newport City 6 9 5 +4 7
12 Cardiff Draconians 6 8 11 -3 7
13 Caerphilly Athletic 8 8 14 -6 8
14 Ynyshir Albions 7 7 6 +1 10
15 llanelli AFC 10 7 27 -20 2
16 Llantwit Major 7 6 16 -10 7
FAW Championship Wales. FAW Championship Predictions