Statistics / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Ruthin Town vs Rhyl

Ruthin Town vs Rhyl Statistics & Analysis

Ruthin Town Ruthin Town
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 85%
Rhyl Rhyl
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rhyl Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12707007

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Ruthin Town 1–1 Rhyl
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Ruthin Town (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Ruthin Town (1X2) 34.2 29.7 +4.5
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.8 +4.9
Rhyl (1X2) 36.1 45.5 -9.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.8%. The difference — about 4.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: 1xbet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Ruthin Town (1X2) 3.03 3.03 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.64 3.64 0.0
Rhyl (1X2) 1.98 1.98 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Ruthin Town vs Rhyl
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Ruthin Town 1.28 — Rhyl 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.4% · Probability edge: +12.4 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 9 6 3 0 21
2 Pontypridd Town 10 6 2 2 20
3 Aberystwyth Town 9 6 1 2 19
4 Caerau (Ely) 10 6 1 3 19
5 Baglan Dragons 11 5 2 4 17
6 Ynyshir Albions 9 4 4 1 16
7 Carmarthen Town 10 4 3 3 15
8 Trethomas Bluebirds 10 3 4 3 13
9 Treowen Stars 10 4 1 5 13
10 Afan Lido 11 3 3 5 12
11 Caerphilly Athletic 10 3 2 5 11
12 Pontardawe Town 9 3 1 5 10
13 Cardiff Draconians 8 2 3 3 9
14 Newport City 8 2 2 4 8
15 Llantwit Major 9 2 2 5 8
16 llanelli AFC 11 0 2 9 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 9 30 11 +19 21
2 Pontypridd Town 10 24 17 +7 20
3 Aberystwyth Town 9 22 9 +13 19
4 Caerau (Ely) 10 22 18 +4 19
5 Carmarthen Town 10 22 21 +1 15
6 Trethomas Bluebirds 10 20 18 +2 13
7 Treowen Stars 10 19 21 -2 13
8 Afan Lido 11 18 22 -4 12
9 Ynyshir Albions 9 15 9 +6 16
10 Pontardawe Town 9 15 17 -2 10
11 Newport City 8 12 9 +3 8
12 Baglan Dragons 11 12 12 0 17
13 Caerphilly Athletic 10 12 19 -7 11
14 Cardiff Draconians 8 11 14 -3 9
15 llanelli AFC 11 9 33 -24 2
16 Llantwit Major 9 8 21 -13 8