Statistics / Football / Wales. FAW Championship / Caersws vs Bala Town

Caersws vs Bala Town Statistics & Analysis

Caersws Caersws
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 39%
Bala Town Bala Town
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Caersws Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11237348

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Caersws 3–3 Bala Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FAW Championship
  • Fixture: Caersws vs Bala Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Caersws 1.35 — Bala Town 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.2% · Probability edge: +13.6 pts · Est. EV: +28.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship FAW Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Swansea University 8 6 2 0 20
2 Aberystwyth Town 8 6 1 1 19
3 Pontypridd Town 9 6 1 2 19
4 Caerau (Ely) 9 5 1 3 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 14
7 Ynyshir Albions 8 3 4 1 13
8 Treowen Stars 9 4 1 4 13
9 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 11
10 Trethomas Bluebirds 9 2 4 3 10
11 Pontardawe Town 8 3 0 5 9
12 Newport City 7 2 2 3 8
13 Cardiff Draconians 7 2 2 3 8
14 Caerphilly Athletic 9 2 2 5 8
15 Llantwit Major 8 2 1 5 7
16 llanelli AFC 10 0 2 8 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swansea University 8 25 6 +19 20
2 Pontypridd Town 9 23 16 +7 19
3 Aberystwyth Town 8 22 8 +14 19
4 Caerau (Ely) 9 21 18 +3 16
5 Carmarthen Town 9 20 19 +1 14
6 Treowen Stars 9 18 18 0 13
7 Trethomas Bluebirds 9 17 17 0 10
8 Pontardawe Town 8 14 16 -2 9
9 Afan Lido 10 13 17 -4 11
10 Baglan Dragons 10 11 11 0 16
11 Newport City 7 10 6 +4 8
12 Ynyshir Albions 8 9 7 +2 13
13 Cardiff Draconians 7 9 12 -3 8
14 Caerphilly Athletic 9 9 17 -8 8
15 Llantwit Major 8 7 20 -13 7
16 llanelli AFC 10 7 27 -20 2