Penrhyncoch vs Bangor 1876 Statistics & Analysis

Penrhyncoch

Sep 12, 2026 - 13:30

1 1.46

5 1.14

xG Accuracy: 30%

Bangor 1876

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Penrhyncoch Bangor 1876 ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7438267

Closing Odds 1.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Bangor 1876 win · Penrhyncoch 1–5 Bangor 1876

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Penrhyncoch (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Penrhyncoch (1X2) by about 26.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Penrhyncoch (1X2)	42.9	16.5	+26.3
Draw (1X2)	29.2	18.0	+11.2
Bangor 1876 (1X2)	27.9	65.5	-37.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 42.9% on Penrhyncoch (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.5%. The difference — about 26.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Penrhyncoch (1X2)	5.46	5.46
Draw (1X2)	5.02	5.02
Bangor 1876 (1X2)	1.38	1.38

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Penrhyncoch; market prices Bangor 1876 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Penrhyncoch 1.46 xG vs Bangor 1876 1.14 → Penrhyncoch 42.9%
Market: Bangor 1876 ~16.5% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

FAW Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	5	1	0	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	5	0	1	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	13
4	Pontypridd Town	6	4	1	1	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	13
6	Carmarthen Town	7	3	2	2	11
7	Caerau (Ely)	7	3	1	3	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	2	3	2	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7
13	Newport City	5	2	0	3	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	3
15	llanelli AFC	8	0	2	6	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	22	5	+17	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	19	7	+12	15
3	Carmarthen Town	7	17	16	+1	11
4	Treowen Stars	7	16	10	+6	13
5	Pontypridd Town	6	16	11	+5	13
6	Caerau (Ely)	7	16	17	-1	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	14	13	+1	9
8	Afan Lido	8	13	15	-2	10
9	Newport City	5	9	5	+4	6
10	Baglan Dragons	8	8	8	0	13
11	Cardiff Draconians	5	7	8	-1	7
12	Caerphilly Athletic	7	7	12	-5	8
13	Ynyshir Albions	6	6	5	+1	9
14	llanelli AFC	8	6	23	-17	2
15	Pontardawe Town	6	5	13	-8	3
16	Llantwit Major	5	2	15	-13	1