Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra Statistics & Analysis

Guilsfield

Aug 08, 2026 - 13:30

3 1.36

2 1.24

xG Accuracy: 52%

Mold Alexandra

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Guilsfield Guilsfield ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2816565

Closing Odds 1.76

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Guilsfield win · Guilsfield 3–2 Mold Alexandra

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE10 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Mold Alexandra (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Guilsfield (1X2)	38.0	51.4	-13.3
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.4	+5.2
Mold Alexandra (1X2)	32.4	24.2	+8.1
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	57.4	-9.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	42.6	+9.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.6%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE10 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE10)	Closing (PRE1)
Guilsfield (1X2)	1.76	1.76
Draw (1X2)	3.7	3.7
Mold Alexandra (1X2)	3.73	3.73
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	2.18	2.18

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: FAW Championship
Fixture: Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Guilsfield 1.36 — Mold Alexandra 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.9% · Probability edge: +9.0 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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FAW Championship — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	5	1	0	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	5	0	1	15
3	Treowen Stars	7	4	1	2	13
4	Pontypridd Town	6	4	1	1	13
5	Baglan Dragons	8	4	1	3	13
6	Carmarthen Town	7	3	2	2	11
7	Caerau (Ely)	7	3	1	3	10
8	Afan Lido	8	3	1	4	10
9	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	2	3	2	9
10	Ynyshir Albions	6	2	3	1	9
11	Caerphilly Athletic	7	2	2	3	8
12	Cardiff Draconians	5	2	1	2	7
13	Newport City	5	2	0	3	6
14	Pontardawe Town	6	1	0	5	3
15	llanelli AFC	8	0	2	6	2
16	Llantwit Major	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Swansea University	6	22	5	+17	16
2	Aberystwyth Town	6	19	7	+12	15
3	Carmarthen Town	7	17	16	+1	11
4	Treowen Stars	7	16	10	+6	13
5	Pontypridd Town	6	16	11	+5	13
6	Caerau (Ely)	7	16	17	-1	10
7	Trethomas Bluebirds	7	14	13	+1	9
8	Afan Lido	8	13	15	-2	10
9	Newport City	5	9	5	+4	6
10	Baglan Dragons	8	8	8	0	13
11	Cardiff Draconians	5	7	8	-1	7
12	Caerphilly Athletic	7	7	12	-5	8
13	Ynyshir Albions	6	6	5	+1	9
14	llanelli AFC	8	6	23	-17	2
15	Pontardawe Town	6	5	13	-8	3
16	Llantwit Major	5	2	15	-13	1