Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein / Kaltenkirchen vs VfR Neumünster

Kaltenkirchen vs VfR Neumünster Statistics & Analysis

Kaltenkirchen Kaltenkirchen
Oct 03, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 57%
VfR Neumünster VfR Neumünster
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kaltenkirchen VfR Neumünster ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11226126

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result VfR Neumünster win · Kaltenkirchen 1–3 VfR Neumünster
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
  • Fixture: Kaltenkirchen vs VfR Neumünster
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Kaltenkirchen 1.31 — VfR Neumünster 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 07, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Holstein Kiel II 11 8 2 1 26
2 VfR Neumünster 11 7 3 1 24
3 Kilia Kiel 11 6 3 2 21
4 TSB Flensburg 11 6 2 3 20
5 Rotenhof 11 5 4 2 19
6 Rapid Lubeck 11 6 1 4 19
7 Oldenburger SV 11 5 2 4 17
8 Heider SV 11 4 2 5 14
9 SV Eichede 11 3 4 4 13
10 Phönix L. II 11 3 4 4 13
11 Union Neumünster 11 3 4 4 13
12 Nordmark Satrup 11 3 2 6 11
13 Lübeck II 11 3 1 7 10
14 Eckernförder SV 11 3 0 8 9
15 Kaltenkirchen 11 2 2 7 8
16 Hohenwestedt 11 1 4 6 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Holstein Kiel II 11 40 15 +25 26
2 TSB Flensburg 11 32 15 +17 20
3 VfR Neumünster 11 30 15 +15 24
4 Oldenburger SV 11 30 24 +6 17
5 Kilia Kiel 11 28 17 +11 21
6 Phönix L. II 11 26 28 -2 13
7 Rapid Lubeck 11 24 23 +1 19
8 Rotenhof 11 22 19 +3 19
9 Union Neumünster 11 21 24 -3 13
10 Heider SV 11 19 31 -12 14
11 Eckernförder SV 11 19 34 -15 9
12 SV Eichede 11 18 14 +4 13
13 Hohenwestedt 11 18 28 -10 7
14 Kaltenkirchen 11 16 33 -17 8
15 Lübeck II 11 15 28 -13 10
16 Nordmark Satrup 11 13 23 -10 11
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany. Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Predictions