Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II Statistics & Analysis

Nordmark Satrup

Aug 29, 2026 - 12:00

1 1.11

3 1.49

xG Accuracy: 64%

Holstein Kiel II

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5130208

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Holstein Kiel II win · Nordmark Satrup 1–3 Holstein Kiel II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
Fixture: Nordmark Satrup vs Holstein Kiel II
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.3%
xG (showing): Nordmark Satrup 1.11 — Holstein Kiel II 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	9	7	1	1	22
2	VfR Neumünster	9	6	2	1	20
3	Rapid Lubeck	10	6	1	3	19
4	Kilia Kiel	10	5	3	2	18
5	Rotenhof	10	4	4	2	16
6	TSB Flensburg	9	4	2	3	14
7	Heider SV	10	4	2	4	14
8	Phönix L. II	10	3	4	3	13
9	Union Neumünster	10	3	4	3	13
10	Oldenburger SV	9	3	2	4	11
11	Nordmark Satrup	9	3	2	4	11
12	SV Eichede	10	2	4	4	10
13	Kaltenkirchen	9	2	2	5	8
14	Hohenwestedt	9	1	4	4	7
15	Lübeck II	10	2	1	7	7
16	Eckernförder SV	9	2	0	7	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Holstein Kiel II	9	33	12	+21	22
2	Phönix L. II	10	25	25	0	13
3	VfR Neumünster	9	24	11	+13	20
4	Rapid Lubeck	10	24	18	+6	19
5	TSB Flensburg	9	23	15	+8	14
6	Kilia Kiel	10	22	16	+6	18
7	Rotenhof	10	21	19	+2	16
8	Oldenburger SV	9	21	23	-2	11
9	Union Neumünster	10	20	22	-2	13
10	Heider SV	10	19	27	-8	14
11	Hohenwestedt	9	17	22	-5	7
12	Eckernförder SV	9	16	27	-11	6
13	SV Eichede	10	15	13	+2	10
14	Kaltenkirchen	9	14	25	-11	8
15	Nordmark Satrup	9	13	18	-5	11
16	Lübeck II	10	13	27	-14	7