Statistics / Football / Germany. Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein / Lübeck II vs Holstein Kiel II

Lübeck II vs Holstein Kiel II Statistics & Analysis

Lübeck II Lübeck II
Aug 22, 2026 - 12:00
0 1.14
4 1.46
xG Accuracy: 36%
Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Holstein Kiel II Holstein Kiel II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 06:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4262429

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Holstein Kiel II win · Lübeck II 0–4 Holstein Kiel II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein
  • Fixture: Lübeck II vs Holstein Kiel II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Lübeck II 1.14 — Holstein Kiel II 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Holstein Kiel II 9 7 1 1 22
2 VfR Neumünster 9 6 2 1 20
3 Rapid Lubeck 10 6 1 3 19
4 Kilia Kiel 10 5 3 2 18
5 Rotenhof 10 4 4 2 16
6 TSB Flensburg 9 4 2 3 14
7 Heider SV 10 4 2 4 14
8 Phönix L. II 10 3 4 3 13
9 Union Neumünster 10 3 4 3 13
10 Oldenburger SV 9 3 2 4 11
11 Nordmark Satrup 9 3 2 4 11
12 SV Eichede 10 2 4 4 10
13 Kaltenkirchen 9 2 2 5 8
14 Hohenwestedt 9 1 4 4 7
15 Lübeck II 10 2 1 7 7
16 Eckernförder SV 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Holstein Kiel II 9 33 12 +21 22
2 Phönix L. II 10 25 25 0 13
3 VfR Neumünster 9 24 11 +13 20
4 Rapid Lubeck 10 24 18 +6 19
5 TSB Flensburg 9 23 15 +8 14
6 Kilia Kiel 10 22 16 +6 18
7 Rotenhof 10 21 19 +2 16
8 Oldenburger SV 9 21 23 -2 11
9 Union Neumünster 10 20 22 -2 13
10 Heider SV 10 19 27 -8 14
11 Hohenwestedt 9 17 22 -5 7
12 Eckernförder SV 9 16 27 -11 6
13 SV Eichede 10 15 13 +2 10
14 Kaltenkirchen 9 14 25 -11 8
15 Nordmark Satrup 9 13 18 -5 11
16 Lübeck II 10 13 27 -14 7
Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Germany. Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein Predictions