Oud-Heverlee Leuven II vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Statistics & Analysis

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

Sep 27, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.34

1 1.26

xG Accuracy: 59%

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II Oud-Heverlee Leuven II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10090009

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win · Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 3–1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (1X2) by about 8.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2)	37.0	52.3	-15.2
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.9	+6.7
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (1X2)	33.4	24.8	+8.6

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.4% on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.8%. The difference — about 8.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE10)
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2)	1.75	1.75
Draw (1X2)	3.99	3.99
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (1X2)	3.69	3.69

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: First Amateur Division
Fixture: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 1.34 — Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II & Lyra-Lierse Berlaar!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

First Amateur Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Meux	6	5	0	1	15
2	RWDM	5	5	0	0	15
3	Tubize	6	3	2	1	11
4	Rochefort	5	3	1	1	10
5	Union Saint-Gilloise II	6	2	2	2	8
6	Albert Quévy-Mons	5	2	1	2	7
7	Onhaye	6	2	0	4	6
8	Sporting Charleroi II	5	1	2	2	5
9	Standard Liège II	5	1	1	3	4
10	Habay-la-Neuve	5	1	1	3	4
11	Olympic Charleroi	5	1	1	3	4
12	Flénu	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Meux	6	14	4	+10	15
2	Rochefort	5	12	6	+6	10
3	Albert Quévy-Mons	5	10	10	0	7
4	Tubize	6	9	8	+1	11
5	RWDM	5	8	1	+7	15
6	Onhaye	6	7	12	-5	6
7	Union Saint-Gilloise II	6	6	6	0	8
8	Standard Liège II	5	5	3	+2	4
9	Habay-la-Neuve	5	5	9	-4	4
10	Flénu	5	5	13	-8	1
11	Sporting Charleroi II	5	4	5	-1	5
12	Olympic Charleroi	5	4	12	-8	4