Knokke vs Spouwen-Mopertingen Statistics & Analysis

Knokke

Sep 20, 2026 - 13:00

3 1.34

2 1.26

xG Accuracy: 52%

Spouwen-Mopertingen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Knokke Knokke ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8670858

Closing Odds 1.82

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Knokke win · Knokke 3–2 Spouwen-Mopertingen

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 13.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Knokke (1X2)	37.0	50.9	-13.9
Draw (1X2)	29.6	24.5	+5.1
Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2)	33.4	24.6	+8.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	61.3	-13.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	38.7	+13.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 38.7%. The difference — about 13.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Knokke (1X2)	1.82	1.82
Draw (1X2)	3.79	3.79
Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2)	3.77	3.77
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	1.53
Under 2.5 goals	2.42	2.42

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: First Amateur Division
Fixture: Knokke vs Spouwen-Mopertingen
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Knokke 1.34 — Spouwen-Mopertingen 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.0% · Probability edge: +11.8 pts · Est. EV: +25.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First Amateur Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Meux	6	5	0	1	15
2	RWDM	5	5	0	0	15
3	Tubize	6	3	2	1	11
4	Rochefort	5	3	1	1	10
5	Union Saint-Gilloise II	6	2	2	2	8
6	Albert Quévy-Mons	5	2	1	2	7
7	Onhaye	6	2	0	4	6
8	Sporting Charleroi II	5	1	2	2	5
9	Standard Liège II	5	1	1	3	4
10	Habay-la-Neuve	5	1	1	3	4
11	Olympic Charleroi	5	1	1	3	4
12	Flénu	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Meux	6	14	4	+10	15
2	Rochefort	5	12	6	+6	10
3	Albert Quévy-Mons	5	10	10	0	7
4	Tubize	6	9	8	+1	11
5	RWDM	5	8	1	+7	15
6	Onhaye	6	7	12	-5	6
7	Union Saint-Gilloise II	6	6	6	0	8
8	Standard Liège II	5	5	3	+2	4
9	Habay-la-Neuve	5	5	9	-4	4
10	Flénu	5	5	13	-8	1
11	Sporting Charleroi II	5	4	5	-1	5
12	Olympic Charleroi	5	4	12	-8	4