Thes Sport vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II Statistics & Analysis

Thes Sport

Sep 19, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 52%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Thes Sport Oud-Heverlee Leuven II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 03:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8707041

Closing Odds 2.02

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win · Thes Sport 2–3 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Thes Sport (1X2)	36.1	45.4	-9.3
Draw (1X2)	29.7	26.0	+3.7
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2)	34.2	28.6	+5.6
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	62.4	-14.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	37.6	+14.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.6%. The difference — about 14.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Thes Sport (1X2)	2.02	2.02
Draw (1X2)	3.53	3.53
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II (1X2)	3.2	3.2
Over 2.5 goals	1.49	1.49
Under 2.5 goals	2.47	2.47

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: First Amateur Division
Fixture: Thes Sport vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Thes Sport 1.32 — Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.3% · Probability edge: +12.5 pts · Est. EV: +28.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Thes Sport & Oud-Heverlee Leuven II!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

First Amateur Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Meux	6	5	0	1	15
2	RWDM	5	5	0	0	15
3	Tubize	6	3	2	1	11
4	Rochefort	5	3	1	1	10
5	Union Saint-Gilloise II	6	2	2	2	8
6	Albert Quévy-Mons	5	2	1	2	7
7	Onhaye	6	2	0	4	6
8	Sporting Charleroi II	5	1	2	2	5
9	Standard Liège II	5	1	1	3	4
10	Habay-la-Neuve	5	1	1	3	4
11	Olympic Charleroi	5	1	1	3	4
12	Flénu	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Meux	6	14	4	+10	15
2	Rochefort	5	12	6	+6	10
3	Albert Quévy-Mons	5	10	10	0	7
4	Tubize	6	9	8	+1	11
5	RWDM	5	8	1	+7	15
6	Onhaye	6	7	12	-5	6
7	Union Saint-Gilloise II	6	6	6	0	8
8	Standard Liège II	5	5	3	+2	4
9	Habay-la-Neuve	5	5	9	-4	4
10	Flénu	5	5	13	-8	1
11	Sporting Charleroi II	5	4	5	-1	5
12	Olympic Charleroi	5	4	12	-8	4