Statistics / Football / Belgium. First Amateur Division / Roeselare Daisel vs Spouwen-Mopertingen

Roeselare Daisel vs Spouwen-Mopertingen Statistics & Analysis

Roeselare Daisel Roeselare Daisel
Aug 30, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Spouwen-Mopertingen Spouwen-Mopertingen
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Roeselare Daisel Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5293296

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Roeselare Daisel 1–1 Spouwen-Mopertingen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 6.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Roeselare Daisel (1X2) 37.6 48.6 -11.1
Draw (1X2) 29.6 24.9 +4.7
Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2) 32.9 26.5 +6.4
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.9 -6.7
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.1 +6.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.1%. The difference — about 6.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Roeselare Daisel (1X2) 1.88 1.88 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.68 3.68 0.0
Spouwen-Mopertingen (1X2) 3.45 3.45 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.71 1.71 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.08 2.08 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First Amateur Division
  • Fixture: Roeselare Daisel vs Spouwen-Mopertingen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Roeselare Daisel 1.35 — Spouwen-Mopertingen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.5% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Roeselare Daisel & Spouwen-Mopertingen!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
First Amateur Division First Amateur Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Meux 6 5 0 1 15
2 RWDM 5 5 0 0 15
3 Tubize 6 3 2 1 11
4 Rochefort 5 3 1 1 10
5 Union Saint-Gilloise II 6 2 2 2 8
6 Albert Quévy-Mons 5 2 1 2 7
7 Onhaye 6 2 0 4 6
8 Sporting Charleroi II 5 1 2 2 5
9 Standard Liège II 5 1 1 3 4
10 Habay-la-Neuve 5 1 1 3 4
11 Olympic Charleroi 5 1 1 3 4
12 Flénu 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Meux 6 14 4 +10 15
2 Rochefort 5 12 6 +6 10
3 Albert Quévy-Mons 5 10 10 0 7
4 Tubize 6 9 8 +1 11
5 RWDM 5 8 1 +7 15
6 Onhaye 6 7 12 -5 6
7 Union Saint-Gilloise II 6 6 6 0 8
8 Standard Liège II 5 5 3 +2 4
9 Habay-la-Neuve 5 5 9 -4 4
10 Flénu 5 5 13 -8 1
11 Sporting Charleroi II 5 4 5 -1 5
12 Olympic Charleroi 5 4 12 -8 4
First Amateur Division Belgium. First Amateur Division Predictions