Statistics / Football / Belgium. First Amateur Division / Tubize vs Habay-la-Neuve

Tubize vs Habay-la-Neuve Statistics & Analysis

Tubize Tubize
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 64%
Habay-la-Neuve Habay-la-Neuve
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tubize Tubize ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11258104

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Tubize win · Tubize 1–0 Habay-la-Neuve
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Habay-la-Neuve (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 5.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Tubize (1X2) 42.4 50.6 -8.3
Draw (1X2) 29.2 25.5 +3.7
Habay-la-Neuve (1X2) 28.4 23.8 +4.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 54.1 -5.9
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 45.9 +5.9
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 45.9%. The difference — about 5.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Tubize (1X2) 1.81 1.81 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.59 3.59 0.0
Habay-la-Neuve (1X2) 3.85 3.85 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.74 1.74 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.05 2.05 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First Amateur Division
  • Fixture: Tubize vs Habay-la-Neuve
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Tubize 1.45 — Habay-la-Neuve 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.4% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

Get Premium Predictions for Tubize & Habay-la-Neuve!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Statistics
First Amateur Division First Amateur Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Meux 7 5 1 1 16
2 RWDM 7 5 1 1 16
3 Rochefort 7 4 2 1 14
4 Tubize 7 4 2 1 14
5 Union Saint-Gilloise II 7 3 2 2 11
6 Albert Quévy-Mons 6 3 1 2 10
7 Olympic Charleroi 7 2 2 3 8
8 Onhaye 6 2 0 4 6
9 Sporting Charleroi II 6 1 3 2 6
10 Habay-la-Neuve 7 1 2 4 5
11 Standard Liège II 6 1 1 4 4
12 Flénu 7 0 1 6 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Meux 7 15 5 +10 16
2 Rochefort 7 14 7 +7 14
3 Albert Quévy-Mons 6 14 10 +4 10
4 RWDM 7 11 6 +5 16
5 Tubize 7 10 8 +2 14
6 Union Saint-Gilloise II 7 10 8 +2 11
7 Olympic Charleroi 7 9 16 -7 8
8 Flénu 7 8 21 -13 1
9 Onhaye 6 7 12 -5 6
10 Standard Liège II 6 5 4 +1 4
11 Habay-la-Neuve 7 5 10 -5 5
12 Sporting Charleroi II 6 4 5 -1 6
First Amateur Division Belgium. First Amateur Division Predictions