Sporting Charleroi II vs Habay-la-Neuve Statistics & Analysis

Sporting Charleroi II

Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00

0 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 49%

Habay-la-Neuve

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Habay-la-Neuve Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 24, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10587617

Closing Odds 2.31

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Sporting Charleroi II 0–0 Habay-la-Neuve

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Habay-la-Neuve (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Habay-la-Neuve (1X2) by about 5.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Sporting Charleroi II (1X2)	32.9	39.7	-6.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	27.9	+1.6
Habay-la-Neuve (1X2)	37.6	32.4	+5.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	50.4	-2.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	49.6	+2.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.6% on Habay-la-Neuve (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 32.4%. The difference — about 5.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Sporting Charleroi II (1X2)	2.31	2.31
Draw (1X2)	3.28	3.28
Habay-la-Neuve (1X2)	2.83	2.83
Over 2.5 goals	1.88	1.88
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	1.91

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: First Amateur Division
Fixture: Sporting Charleroi II vs Habay-la-Neuve
Kickoff: 2026-09-30 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Sporting Charleroi II 1.25 — Habay-la-Neuve 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 49.0% · Probability edge: +2.8 pts · Est. EV: +2.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 04, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First Amateur Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Meux	7	5	1	1	16
2	RWDM	7	5	1	1	16
3	Rochefort	7	4	2	1	14
4	Tubize	7	4	2	1	14
5	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	3	2	2	11
6	Albert Quévy-Mons	6	3	1	2	10
7	Olympic Charleroi	7	2	2	3	8
8	Onhaye	6	2	0	4	6
9	Sporting Charleroi II	6	1	3	2	6
10	Habay-la-Neuve	7	1	2	4	5
11	Standard Liège II	6	1	1	4	4
12	Flénu	7	0	1	6	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Meux	7	15	5	+10	16
2	Rochefort	7	14	7	+7	14
3	Albert Quévy-Mons	6	14	10	+4	10
4	RWDM	7	11	6	+5	16
5	Tubize	7	10	8	+2	14
6	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	10	8	+2	11
7	Olympic Charleroi	7	9	16	-7	8
8	Flénu	7	8	21	-13	1
9	Onhaye	6	7	12	-5	6
10	Standard Liège II	6	5	4	+1	4
11	Habay-la-Neuve	7	5	10	-5	5
12	Sporting Charleroi II	6	4	5	-1	6