Basford United vs Bedworth United Statistics & Analysis

Basford United

Aug 29, 2026 - 14:00

0(1) 1.39

1(3) 1.21

xG Accuracy: 64%

Bedworth United

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Basford United Bedworth United ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5141013

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Bedworth United win · Basford United 0–1 Bedworth United

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: FA Trophy
Fixture: Basford United vs Bedworth United
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
xG (showing): Basford United 1.39 — Bedworth United 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.2% · Probability edge: +12.6 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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