Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Tweede Divisie / Almere City II vs Barendrecht

Almere City II vs Barendrecht Statistics & Analysis

Almere City II Almere City II
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.34
4 1.26
xG Accuracy: 43%
Barendrecht Barendrecht
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Almere City II Barendrecht ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10089562

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Barendrecht win · Almere City II 1–4 Barendrecht
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Barendrecht (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 6.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Almere City II (1X2) 37.0 46.9 -9.9
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.8 +6.8
Barendrecht (1X2) 33.4 30.3 +3.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.6% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.8%. The difference — about 6.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Almere City II (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.98 3.98 0.0
Barendrecht (1X2) 2.99 2.99 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Tweede Divisie
  • Fixture: Almere City II vs Barendrecht
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Almere City II 1.34 — Barendrecht 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.7% · Probability edge: +18.1 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tweede Divisie Tweede Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Quick Boys 6 5 0 1 15
2 Kozakken Boys 6 4 1 1 13
3 De Treffers 6 3 3 0 12
4 HHC 6 3 2 1 11
5 Ijsselmeervogels 5 3 1 1 10
6 Spakenburg 6 3 1 2 10
7 AFC Amsterdam 6 3 1 2 10
8 Sparta Rotterdam II 6 2 3 1 9
9 RKAV Volendam 6 2 3 1 9
10 Katwijk 6 2 2 2 8
11 Barendrecht 6 2 2 2 8
12 Rijnsburgse Boys 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hoek 6 1 3 2 6
14 Koninklijke HFC 6 1 2 3 5
15 Kloetinge 6 1 2 3 5
16 Almere City II 6 1 1 4 4
17 GVVV Veenendaal 5 1 0 4 3
18 ROHDA Raalte 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sparta Rotterdam II 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Quick Boys 6 17 4 +13 15
3 Kozakken Boys 6 17 10 +7 13
4 De Treffers 6 14 6 +8 12
5 HHC 6 13 9 +4 11
6 AFC Amsterdam 6 11 11 0 10
7 Rijnsburgse Boys 6 11 18 -7 7
8 Almere City II 6 10 12 -2 4
9 Spakenburg 6 9 6 +3 10
10 Katwijk 6 9 8 +1 8
11 Barendrecht 6 8 9 -1 8
12 Hoek 6 8 9 -1 6
13 Koninklijke HFC 6 8 12 -4 5
14 GVVV Veenendaal 5 8 14 -6 3
15 RKAV Volendam 6 7 10 -3 9
16 Kloetinge 6 7 14 -7 5
17 Ijsselmeervogels 5 6 3 +3 10
18 ROHDA Raalte 6 3 17 -14 0
Tweede Divisie Netherlands. Tweede Divisie Predictions