Statistics / Football / Netherlands. Tweede Divisie / AFC Amsterdam vs Katwijk

AFC Amsterdam vs Katwijk Statistics & Analysis

AFC Amsterdam AFC Amsterdam
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:15
0 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Katwijk Katwijk
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Katwijk Katwijk ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10091671

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Katwijk win · AFC Amsterdam 0–1 Katwijk
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Tweede Divisie
  • Fixture: AFC Amsterdam vs Katwijk
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): AFC Amsterdam 1.26 — Katwijk 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.6% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Tweede Divisie Tweede Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Quick Boys 6 5 0 1 15
2 Kozakken Boys 6 4 1 1 13
3 De Treffers 6 3 3 0 12
4 HHC 6 3 2 1 11
5 Ijsselmeervogels 5 3 1 1 10
6 Spakenburg 6 3 1 2 10
7 AFC Amsterdam 6 3 1 2 10
8 Sparta Rotterdam II 6 2 3 1 9
9 RKAV Volendam 6 2 3 1 9
10 Katwijk 6 2 2 2 8
11 Barendrecht 6 2 2 2 8
12 Rijnsburgse Boys 6 2 1 3 7
13 Hoek 6 1 3 2 6
14 Koninklijke HFC 6 1 2 3 5
15 Kloetinge 6 1 2 3 5
16 Almere City II 6 1 1 4 4
17 GVVV Veenendaal 5 1 0 4 3
18 ROHDA Raalte 6 0 0 6 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sparta Rotterdam II 6 18 12 +6 9
2 Quick Boys 6 17 4 +13 15
3 Kozakken Boys 6 17 10 +7 13
4 De Treffers 6 14 6 +8 12
5 HHC 6 13 9 +4 11
6 AFC Amsterdam 6 11 11 0 10
7 Rijnsburgse Boys 6 11 18 -7 7
8 Almere City II 6 10 12 -2 4
9 Spakenburg 6 9 6 +3 10
10 Katwijk 6 9 8 +1 8
11 Barendrecht 6 8 9 -1 8
12 Hoek 6 8 9 -1 6
13 Koninklijke HFC 6 8 12 -4 5
14 GVVV Veenendaal 5 8 14 -6 3
15 RKAV Volendam 6 7 10 -3 9
16 Kloetinge 6 7 14 -7 5
17 Ijsselmeervogels 5 6 3 +3 10
18 ROHDA Raalte 6 3 17 -14 0
Tweede Divisie Netherlands. Tweede Divisie Predictions