Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D / Tatran Bohunice vs Ždírec nad Doubravou

Tatran Bohunice vs Ždírec nad Doubravou Statistics & Analysis

Tatran Bohunice Tatran Bohunice
Aug 15, 2026 - 08:15
1 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 85%
Ždírec nad Doubravou Ždírec nad Doubravou
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tatran Bohunice Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3337654

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Tatran Bohunice 1–1 Ždírec nad Doubravou
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ždírec nad Doubravou (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ždírec nad Doubravou (1X2) by about 19.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Tatran Bohunice (1X2) 38.5 68.9 -30.4
Draw (1X2) 29.6 18.7 +10.8
Ždírec nad Doubravou (1X2) 31.9 12.4 +19.6
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 61.2 -13.0
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 38.8 +13.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 31.9% on Ždírec nad Doubravou (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 12.4%. The difference — about 19.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Tatran Bohunice (1X2) 1.29 1.29 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.74 4.74 0.0
Ždírec nad Doubravou (1X2) 7.17 7.17 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.49 1.49 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.35 2.35 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Tatran Bohunice; market prices Tatran Bohunice instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Tatran Bohunice 1.37 xG vs Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.23 → Tatran Bohunice 38.5%
  • Market: Tatran Bohunice ~68.9% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
4. liga - Divizie D 4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tatran Bohunice 8 5 2 1 17
2 Znojmo 7 4 2 1 14
3 Velká Bíteš 7 4 2 1 14
4 Kuřim 7 4 1 2 13
5 Havlíčkův Brod 8 4 1 3 13
6 Sparta Brno 8 4 1 3 13
7 FS Třebíč 7 4 0 3 12
8 Pelhřimov 7 3 2 2 11
9 Sokol Tasovice 7 2 4 1 10
10 Žďár nad Sázavou 8 2 2 4 8
11 Chotebor 7 2 2 3 8
12 Bystrc Kníničky 7 1 4 2 7
13 Velké Meziříčí 7 1 3 3 6
14 Humpolec 7 1 2 4 5
15 Ždírec nad Doubravou 7 1 2 4 5
16 Bedrichov 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Bohunice 8 21 8 +13 17
2 Kuřim 7 20 9 +11 13
3 Znojmo 7 16 7 +9 14
4 Pelhřimov 7 16 9 +7 11
5 Havlíčkův Brod 8 15 11 +4 13
6 Žďár nad Sázavou 8 14 15 -1 8
7 Sokol Tasovice 7 12 8 +4 10
8 Sparta Brno 8 11 12 -1 13
9 Ždírec nad Doubravou 7 10 16 -6 5
10 FS Třebíč 7 9 14 -5 12
11 Chotebor 7 9 16 -7 8
12 Velká Bíteš 7 8 6 +2 14
13 Bystrc Kníničky 7 8 9 -1 7
14 Velké Meziříčí 7 8 16 -8 6
15 Humpolec 7 6 10 -4 5
16 Bedrichov 7 5 22 -17 2
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