Statistics / Football / Scotland. Football League - Lowland League / Troon FC vs Kilwinning Rangers

Troon FC vs Kilwinning Rangers Statistics & Analysis

⚽
Troon FC
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
Kilwinning Rangers Kilwinning Rangers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Troon FC Kilwinning Rangers ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10098999

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kilwinning Rangers win · Troon FC 2–4 Kilwinning Rangers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Football League - Lowland League
  • Fixture: Troon FC vs Kilwinning Rangers
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Troon FC 1.32 — Kilwinning Rangers 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Football League - Lowland League Football League - Lowland League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kilwinning Rangers 11 9 0 2 27
2 Tranent Juniors 9 8 1 0 25
3 Pollok 10 7 2 1 23
4 Largs Thistle 11 7 2 2 23
5 Auchinleck Talbot 11 7 1 3 22
6 Linlithgow Rose 10 7 1 2 22
7 Brechin 9 7 1 1 22
8 Broxburn Athletic 9 7 1 1 22
9 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 10 7 1 2 22
10 Clydebank 9 6 2 1 20
11 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 6 0 3 18
12 Johnstone Burgh 10 5 3 2 18
13 Celtic II 10 5 2 3 17
14 Cumnock Juniors 10 5 2 3 17
15 Lochee United 10 5 2 3 17
16 Caledonian Braves 9 5 1 3 16
17 Civil Service Strollers 10 5 1 4 16
18 Bo'ness United 10 4 1 5 13
19 Troon FC 11 4 0 7 12
20 Cumbernauld Colts 10 2 4 4 10
21 East Stirlingshire 10 3 1 6 10
22 Gretna 2008 11 3 1 7 10
23 Cowdenbeath 9 3 0 6 9
24 Musselburgh Athletic 10 2 3 5 9
25 Beith 11 2 3 6 9
26 Albion Rovers 10 2 2 6 8
27 Renfrew 10 2 1 7 7
28 Berwick Rangers 9 1 2 6 5
29 Dunipace 9 1 1 7 4
30 Newton Stewart 8 1 1 6 4
31 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 1 0 8 3
32 Stirling University 10 1 0 9 3
33 Dalbeattie Star 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Auchinleck Talbot 11 35 12 +23 22
2 Kilwinning Rangers 11 35 15 +20 27
3 Clydebank 9 32 18 +14 20
4 Linlithgow Rose 10 29 12 +17 22
5 Celtic II 10 28 19 +9 17
6 Pollok 10 26 13 +13 23
7 Caledonian Braves 9 26 21 +5 16
8 Cumnock Juniors 10 25 18 +7 17
9 Gretna 2008 11 25 33 -8 10
10 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 23 9 +14 18
11 Johnstone Burgh 10 22 16 +6 18
12 Lochee United 10 21 16 +5 17
13 Brechin 9 20 10 +10 22
14 Troon FC 11 20 23 -3 12
15 Cumbernauld Colts 10 20 23 -3 10
16 Tranent Juniors 9 18 5 +13 25
17 Renfrew 10 18 29 -11 7
18 Bo'ness United 10 17 22 -5 13
19 Civil Service Strollers 10 16 16 0 16
20 Broxburn Athletic 9 15 8 +7 22
21 Largs Thistle 11 15 10 +5 23
22 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 10 15 11 +4 22
23 East Stirlingshire 10 14 21 -7 10
24 Beith 11 14 28 -14 9
25 Cowdenbeath 9 13 15 -2 9
26 Stirling University 10 11 27 -16 3
27 Musselburgh Athletic 10 10 15 -5 9
28 Albion Rovers 10 10 21 -11 8
29 Berwick Rangers 9 9 17 -8 5
30 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 9 22 -13 3
31 Newton Stewart 8 9 32 -23 4
32 Dunipace 9 6 20 -14 4
33 Dalbeattie Star 10 6 35 -29 1
Football League - Lowland League Scotland. Football League - Lowland League Predictions