Statistics / Football / Scotland. Football League - Lowland League / Civil Service Strollers vs Berwick Rangers

Civil Service Strollers vs Berwick Rangers Statistics & Analysis

Civil Service Strollers Civil Service Strollers
Sep 15, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.24
1 1.36
xG Accuracy: 74%
Berwick Rangers Berwick Rangers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Berwick Rangers Civil Service Strollers ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7705041

Closing Odds 3.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Civil Service Strollers win · Civil Service Strollers 2–1 Berwick Rangers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 16.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Civil Service Strollers (1X2) 32.4 35.8 -3.5
Draw (1X2) 29.6 25.3 +4.3
Berwick Rangers (1X2) 38.0 38.9 -0.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 64.3 -16.1
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 35.7 +16.1
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 35.7%. The difference — about 16.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Civil Service Strollers (1X2) 2.49 2.51 +0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.5 3.56 -0.2
Berwick Rangers (1X2) 2.29 2.31 +0.1
Over 2.5 goals 1.42 1.43 +0.1
Under 2.5 goals 2.55 2.58 -0.1

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Football League - Lowland League
  • Fixture: Civil Service Strollers vs Berwick Rangers
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Civil Service Strollers 1.24 — Berwick Rangers 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.6% · Probability edge: +17.2 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Football League - Lowland League Football League - Lowland League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kilwinning Rangers 10 8 0 2 24
2 Tranent Juniors 8 8 0 0 24
3 Largs Thistle 10 7 1 2 22
4 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 9 7 0 2 21
5 Clydebank 9 6 2 1 20
6 Pollok 9 6 2 1 20
7 Auchinleck Talbot 10 6 1 3 19
8 Linlithgow Rose 9 6 1 2 19
9 Brechin 8 6 1 1 19
10 Broxburn Athletic 8 6 1 1 19
11 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 6 0 3 18
12 Cumnock Juniors 9 5 2 2 17
13 Celtic II 10 5 2 3 17
14 Caledonian Braves 9 5 1 3 16
15 Lochee United 9 5 1 3 16
16 Johnstone Burgh 9 4 3 2 15
17 Civil Service Strollers 9 4 1 4 13
18 Bo'ness United 9 4 1 4 13
19 Troon FC 10 4 0 6 12
20 Cumbernauld Colts 10 2 4 4 10
21 East Stirlingshire 9 3 1 5 10
22 Cowdenbeath 9 3 0 6 9
23 Musselburgh Athletic 9 2 2 5 8
24 Albion Rovers 9 2 2 5 8
25 Beith 10 2 2 6 8
26 Renfrew 9 2 1 6 7
27 Gretna 2008 10 2 1 7 7
28 Berwick Rangers 9 1 2 6 5
29 Dunipace 8 1 1 6 4
30 Newton Stewart 8 1 1 6 4
31 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 1 0 8 3
32 Stirling University 9 1 0 8 3
33 Dalbeattie Star 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Clydebank 9 32 18 +14 20
2 Auchinleck Talbot 10 31 12 +19 19
3 Kilwinning Rangers 10 31 13 +18 24
4 Celtic II 10 28 19 +9 17
5 Caledonian Braves 9 26 21 +5 16
6 Linlithgow Rose 9 25 11 +14 19
7 Cumnock Juniors 9 25 14 +11 17
8 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 9 23 9 +14 18
9 Pollok 9 21 12 +9 20
10 Lochee United 9 20 15 +5 16
11 Cumbernauld Colts 10 20 23 -3 10
12 Gretna 2008 10 20 32 -12 7
13 Johnstone Burgh 9 19 14 +5 15
14 Troon FC 10 18 19 -1 12
15 Tranent Juniors 8 17 4 +13 24
16 Brechin 8 17 10 +7 19
17 Bo'ness United 9 16 18 -2 13
18 Renfrew 9 16 26 -10 7
19 Largs Thistle 10 14 9 +5 22
20 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 9 14 10 +4 21
21 Broxburn Athletic 8 13 7 +6 19
22 Civil Service Strollers 9 13 14 -1 13
23 Cowdenbeath 9 13 15 -2 9
24 East Stirlingshire 9 13 19 -6 10
25 Beith 10 13 27 -14 8
26 Musselburgh Athletic 9 9 14 -5 8
27 Albion Rovers 9 9 16 -7 8
28 Berwick Rangers 9 9 17 -8 5
29 Gala Fairydean Rovers 9 9 22 -13 3
30 Stirling University 9 9 24 -15 3
31 Newton Stewart 8 9 32 -23 4
32 Dunipace 8 6 17 -11 4
33 Dalbeattie Star 9 5 30 -25 1
Football League - Lowland League Scotland. Football League - Lowland League Predictions