Uherský Brod vs Havířov Statistics & Analysis

Uherský Brod

Oct 03, 2026 - 13:00

2 1.31

2 1.29

xG Accuracy: 68%

Havířov

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Uherský Brod Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11232470

Closing Odds 1.46

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Uherský Brod 2–2 Havířov

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Havířov (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Havířov (1X2) by about 16.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Uherský Brod (1X2)	35.6	61.5	-25.9
Draw (1X2)	29.7	20.7	+8.9
Havířov (1X2)	34.7	17.8	+16.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	59.4	-11.2
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	40.6	+11.2

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Havířov (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.8%. The difference — about 16.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Uherský Brod (1X2)	1.46	1.46
Draw (1X2)	4.33	4.33
Havířov (1X2)	5.05	5.05
Over 2.5 goals	1.55	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	2.27	2.27

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - MSFL
Fixture: Uherský Brod vs Havířov
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Uherský Brod 1.31 — Havířov 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	11	7	4	0	25
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	7	1	2	22
3	Uničov	10	6	2	2	20
4	Frýdek-Místek	10	5	3	2	18
5	Hranice	11	5	2	4	17
6	Sigma Olomouc II	10	5	1	4	16
7	Vítkovice	10	4	4	2	16
8	Unie Hlubina	10	4	3	3	15
9	Slovácko II	10	4	3	3	15
10	Uherský Brod	10	4	2	4	14
11	Vrchovina	10	4	2	4	14
12	Zlín II	10	3	3	4	12
13	Hodonín	10	3	2	5	11
14	Karviná II	10	3	2	5	11
15	Blansko	10	1	4	5	7
16	Vsetín	10	2	1	7	7
17	Polanka nad Odrou	10	1	3	6	6
18	Havířov	10	0	4	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Unie Hlubina	10	25	18	+7	15
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	23	15	+8	22
3	Líšeň II	11	20	4	+16	25
4	Uničov	10	19	13	+6	20
5	Sigma Olomouc II	10	18	12	+6	16
6	Slovácko II	10	16	11	+5	15
7	Uherský Brod	10	16	16	0	14
8	Frýdek-Místek	10	15	8	+7	18
9	Hranice	11	15	10	+5	17
10	Karviná II	10	15	20	-5	11
11	Blansko	10	15	27	-12	7
12	Zlín II	10	12	16	-4	12
13	Vítkovice	10	11	7	+4	16
14	Vrchovina	10	11	16	-5	14
15	Hodonín	10	10	12	-2	11
16	Vsetín	10	10	24	-14	7
17	Polanka nad Odrou	10	6	14	-8	6
18	Havířov	10	4	18	-14	4