Statistics / Football / Denmark. 3. Division / Hørsholm-Usserød vs Holbæk B&I

Hørsholm-Usserød vs Holbæk B&I Statistics & Analysis

Hørsholm-Usserød Hørsholm-Usserød
Sep 13, 2026 - 12:00
3 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Holbæk B&I Holbæk B&I
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Holbæk B&I Hørsholm-Usserød ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7429455

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Hørsholm-Usserød win · Hørsholm-Usserød 3–1 Holbæk B&I
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Hørsholm-Usserød (1X2), Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Hørsholm-Usserød (1X2) by about 12.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Hørsholm-Usserød (1X2) 34.7 21.8 +12.9
Draw (1X2) 29.7 22.1 +7.6
Holbæk B&I (1X2) 35.6 56.2 -20.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Hørsholm-Usserød (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 21.8%. The difference — about 12.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE5) Implied Δ (pp)
Hørsholm-Usserød (1X2) 4.15 4.15 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.1 4.1 0.0
Holbæk B&I (1X2) 1.61 1.61 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division
  • Fixture: Hørsholm-Usserød vs Holbæk B&I
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Hørsholm-Usserød 1.29 — Holbæk B&I 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Division 3. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Holbæk B&I 9 6 1 2 19
2 Brønshøj 8 5 2 1 17
3 FC Helsingor 9 5 2 2 17
4 Vanløse 8 4 3 1 15
5 Holstebro 8 4 1 3 13
6 ASA Aarhus 8 4 1 3 13
7 Næsby 8 3 2 3 11
8 Hørsholm-Usserød 8 2 3 3 9
9 Frem 8 2 2 4 8
10 Sundby 8 2 1 5 7
11 Ishøj 8 1 1 6 4
12 Ringsted 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Holbæk B&I 9 24 17 +7 19
2 FC Helsingor 9 17 11 +6 17
3 Brønshøj 8 16 8 +8 17
4 Frem 8 16 15 +1 8
5 Hørsholm-Usserød 8 16 16 0 9
6 Holstebro 8 15 15 0 13
7 Vanløse 8 14 8 +6 15
8 Næsby 8 14 13 +1 11
9 ASA Aarhus 8 11 11 0 13
10 Sundby 8 11 15 -4 7
11 Ringsted 8 10 23 -13 4
12 Ishøj 8 4 16 -12 4
3. Division Denmark. 3. Division Predictions