Statistics / Football / Russia. First League / Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk

Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk Statistics & Analysis

Veles Veles
Oct 04, 2026 - 11:30
1 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 74%
Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Veles Volga Ulyanovsk ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 02, 2026 · 00:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12419562

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Volga Ulyanovsk win · Veles 1–2 Volga Ulyanovsk
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Veles vs Volga Ulyanovsk
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-04 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Veles 1.34 — Volga Ulyanovsk 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.2% · Probability edge: +4.0 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 13 11 1 1 34
2 Veles 14 8 2 4 26
3 Ural 13 7 4 2 25
4 Torpedo Moskva 13 7 3 3 24
5 Spartak Kostroma 13 7 3 3 24
6 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
7 Shinnik Yaroslavl 13 4 7 2 19
8 Rotor Volgograd 13 5 3 5 18
9 FC UFA 12 4 6 2 18
10 Arsenal Tula 13 4 4 5 16
11 Volga Ulyanovsk 14 4 3 7 15
12 Chelyabinsk 13 4 3 6 15
13 Enisey 13 3 5 5 14
14 Leningradets 13 3 4 6 13
15 FK Neftekhimik 13 4 0 9 12
16 KAMAZ 13 2 4 7 10
17 Ska-khabarovsk 13 1 4 8 7
18 Tekstilshchik 13 1 4 8 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 13 41 14 +27 34
2 Torpedo Moskva 13 24 10 +14 24
3 Rotor Volgograd 13 22 16 +6 18
4 Ural 13 21 8 +13 25
5 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
6 Veles 14 19 17 +2 26
7 Spartak Kostroma 13 18 13 +5 24
8 Volga Ulyanovsk 14 18 21 -3 15
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 13 17 13 +4 19
10 Chelyabinsk 13 17 21 -4 15
11 FC UFA 12 16 13 +3 18
12 Arsenal Tula 13 15 24 -9 16
13 Enisey 13 15 25 -10 14
14 KAMAZ 13 14 22 -8 10
15 Ska-khabarovsk 13 14 26 -12 7
16 Leningradets 13 11 23 -12 13
17 FK Neftekhimik 13 9 19 -10 12
18 Tekstilshchik 13 8 21 -13 7
First League Russia. First League Predictions