Statistics / Football / Russia. First League / FC Sochi vs FC UFA

FC Sochi vs FC UFA Statistics & Analysis

FC Sochi FC Sochi
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 64%
FC UFA FC UFA
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Sochi FC Sochi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 03:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13238673

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result FC Sochi win · FC Sochi 1–0 FC UFA
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE20 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), FC UFA (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on FC UFA (1X2) by about 12.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
FC Sochi (1X2) 41.9 59.5 -17.7
Draw (1X2) 29.3 24.0 +5.4
FC UFA (1X2) 28.8 16.5 +12.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.8% on FC UFA (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 16.5%. The difference — about 12.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE20 → PRE1 · Book: roobet

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE20) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
FC Sochi (1X2) 1.55 1.55 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.85 3.85 0.0
FC UFA (1X2) 5.6 5.6 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: FC Sochi vs FC UFA
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): FC Sochi 1.44 — FC UFA 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 13 11 1 1 34
2 FC Sochi 14 9 2 3 29
3 Veles 14 8 2 4 26
4 Ural 13 7 4 2 25
5 Torpedo Moskva 13 7 3 3 24
6 Spartak Kostroma 13 7 3 3 24
7 Shinnik Yaroslavl 13 4 7 2 19
8 Rotor Volgograd 14 5 3 6 18
9 FC UFA 13 4 6 3 18
10 Arsenal Tula 13 4 4 5 16
11 Volga Ulyanovsk 14 4 3 7 15
12 Chelyabinsk 13 4 3 6 15
13 Enisey 13 3 5 5 14
14 Leningradets 13 3 4 6 13
15 FK Neftekhimik 13 4 0 9 12
16 KAMAZ 13 2 4 7 10
17 Ska-khabarovsk 13 1 4 8 7
18 Tekstilshchik 13 1 4 8 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 13 41 14 +27 34
2 Torpedo Moskva 13 24 10 +14 24
3 FC Sochi 14 23 14 +9 29
4 Rotor Volgograd 14 22 17 +5 18
5 Ural 13 21 8 +13 25
6 Veles 14 19 17 +2 26
7 Spartak Kostroma 13 18 13 +5 24
8 Volga Ulyanovsk 14 18 21 -3 15
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 13 17 13 +4 19
10 Chelyabinsk 13 17 21 -4 15
11 FC UFA 13 16 14 +2 18
12 Arsenal Tula 13 15 24 -9 16
13 Enisey 13 15 25 -10 14
14 KAMAZ 13 14 22 -8 10
15 Ska-khabarovsk 13 14 26 -12 7
16 Leningradets 13 11 23 -12 13
17 FK Neftekhimik 13 9 19 -10 12
18 Tekstilshchik 13 8 21 -13 7
First League Russia. First League Predictions