Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk Statistics & Analysis

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 49%

Ska-khabarovsk

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Shinnik Yaroslavl Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10111636

Closing Odds 1.89

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Draw · Shinnik Yaroslavl 0–0 Ska-khabarovsk

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ska-khabarovsk (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ska-khabarovsk (1X2) by about 9.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Shinnik Yaroslavl (1X2)	36.6	50.6	-14.0
Draw (1X2)	29.6	25.4	+4.3
Ska-khabarovsk (1X2)	33.8	24.1	+9.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	45.1	+3.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	54.9	-3.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 33.8% on Ska-khabarovsk (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.1%. The difference — about 9.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Shinnik Yaroslavl (1X2)	1.89	1.89
Draw (1X2)	3.77	3.77
Ska-khabarovsk (1X2)	3.97	3.97
Over 2.5 goals	2.12	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	1.74	1.74

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: First League
Fixture: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Ska-khabarovsk
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.33 — Ska-khabarovsk 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	10	1	1	31
2	Spartak Kostroma	11	7	3	1	24
3	FC Sochi	12	7	2	3	23
4	Veles	12	7	2	3	23
5	Ural	11	6	4	1	22
6	Torpedo Moskva	11	6	2	3	20
7	Rotor Volgograd	12	5	2	5	17
8	FC UFA	11	4	5	2	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	11	3	6	2	15
10	Enisey	11	3	4	4	13
11	Arsenal Tula	12	3	4	5	13
12	FK Neftekhimik	12	4	0	8	12
13	Volga Ulyanovsk	11	3	2	6	11
14	Chelyabinsk	11	3	2	6	11
15	Leningradets	11	2	4	5	10
16	KAMAZ	12	2	3	7	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	1	4	7	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	11	1	2	8	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	36	14	+22	31
2	Torpedo Moskva	11	21	9	+12	20
3	FC Sochi	12	21	14	+7	23
4	Rotor Volgograd	12	20	14	+6	17
5	Ural	11	18	5	+13	22
6	FC UFA	11	16	13	+3	17
7	Veles	12	16	14	+2	23
8	Spartak Kostroma	11	15	8	+7	24
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	11	15	13	+2	15
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	11	14	17	-3	11
11	Enisey	11	14	19	-5	13
12	Chelyabinsk	11	12	18	-6	11
13	Arsenal Tula	12	12	22	-10	13
14	KAMAZ	12	11	19	-8	9
15	Ska-khabarovsk	11	11	23	-12	5
16	Leningradets	11	9	20	-11	10
17	Tekstilshchik	12	8	19	-11	7
18	FK Neftekhimik	12	7	15	-8	12