Statistics / Football / Russia. First League / Rotor Volgograd vs Ska-khabarovsk

Rotor Volgograd vs Ska-khabarovsk Statistics & Analysis

Rotor Volgograd Rotor Volgograd
Jul 20, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.42
0 1.18
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ska-khabarovsk Ska-khabarovsk
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rotor Volgograd Rotor Volgograd ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 08:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2338040

Closing Odds 1.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Rotor Volgograd win · Rotor Volgograd 1–0 Ska-khabarovsk
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Ska-khabarovsk (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Ska-khabarovsk (1X2) by about 12.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Rotor Volgograd (1X2) 45.1 61.4 -16.4
Draw (1X2) 28.8 24.6 +4.2
Ska-khabarovsk (1X2) 26.1 14.0 +12.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 44.8 +3.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 55.2 -3.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.1% on Ska-khabarovsk (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.0%. The difference — about 12.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Rotor Volgograd (1X2) 1.55 1.55 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.87 3.87 0.0
Ska-khabarovsk (1X2) 6.81 6.81 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.13 2.13 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.73 1.73 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Russian Premier League
  • Fixture: Rotor Volgograd vs SKA-Khabarovsk
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-20 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.1% · Draw 28.8% · Away 26.1%
  • xG (showing): Rotor Volgograd 1.42 — SKA-Khabarovsk 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 10 8 1 1 25
2 Veles 10 7 1 2 22
3 Torpedo Moskva 9 6 1 2 19
4 FC Sochi 10 6 1 3 19
5 Ural 9 5 3 1 18
6 Spartak Kostroma 9 5 3 1 18
7 FC UFA 9 4 4 1 16
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl 9 3 5 1 14
9 FK Neftekhimik 10 4 0 6 12
10 Arsenal Tula 10 3 3 4 12
11 Rotor Volgograd 10 3 2 5 11
12 Volga Ulyanovsk 9 3 1 5 10
13 Enisey 9 2 4 3 10
14 Leningradets 9 2 3 4 9
15 Chelyabinsk 9 2 1 6 7
16 Tekstilshchik 10 1 3 6 6
17 KAMAZ 10 1 2 7 5
18 Ska-khabarovsk 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 10 28 13 +15 25
2 Torpedo Moskva 9 19 6 +13 19
3 FC Sochi 10 18 12 +6 19
4 Ural 9 16 4 +12 18
5 Veles 10 14 11 +3 22
6 Shinnik Yaroslavl 9 14 11 +3 14
7 Rotor Volgograd 10 14 14 0 11
8 Spartak Kostroma 9 13 8 +5 18
9 FC UFA 9 13 9 +4 16
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 9 12 14 -2 10
11 Enisey 9 11 14 -3 10
12 Chelyabinsk 9 9 16 -7 7
13 Arsenal Tula 10 9 17 -8 12
14 KAMAZ 10 9 18 -9 5
15 Ska-khabarovsk 9 8 20 -12 3
16 Leningradets 9 7 12 -5 9
17 FK Neftekhimik 10 7 13 -6 12
18 Tekstilshchik 10 6 15 -9 6
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