Sparta Lichtenberg vs Hertha Zehlendorf Statistics & Analysis

Sparta Lichtenberg

Oct 11, 2026 - 12:00

0 1.42

4 1.18

xG Accuracy: 31%

Hertha Zehlendorf

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sparta Lichtenberg Hertha Zehlendorf ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13198609

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hertha Zehlendorf win · Sparta Lichtenberg 0–4 Hertha Zehlendorf

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Oberliga - Nordost-Nord
Fixture: Sparta Lichtenberg vs Hertha Zehlendorf
Kickoff: 2026-10-11 12:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
xG (showing): Sparta Lichtenberg 1.42 — Hertha Zehlendorf 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	BAK '07	7	4	3	0	15
2	Siedenbollentin	7	4	1	2	13
3	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	7	4	1	2	13
4	Lichtenberg	7	4	0	3	12
5	Anker Wismar	7	4	0	3	12
6	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	7	3	2	2	11
7	Optik Rathenow	7	3	1	3	10
8	Hansa Rostock II	7	2	3	2	9
9	Hertha Zehlendorf	6	3	0	3	9
10	Tennis Borussia	7	2	3	2	9
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	7	2	3	2	9
12	Union Klosterfelde	7	2	2	3	8
13	Makkabi	7	2	2	3	8
14	FC Lok Stendal	7	2	1	4	7
15	Sparta Lichtenberg	6	1	2	3	5
16	Neustrelitz	7	1	0	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hansa Rostock II	7	18	11	+7	9
2	BAK '07	7	12	6	+6	15
3	Siedenbollentin	7	12	6	+6	13
4	Anker Wismar	7	11	11	0	12
5	Mecklenburg Schwerin	7	11	12	-1	9
6	FC Lok Stendal	7	11	14	-3	7
7	Lichtenberg	7	10	8	+2	12
8	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	7	10	9	+1	11
9	Neustrelitz	7	10	18	-8	3
10	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	7	9	6	+3	13
11	Hertha Zehlendorf	6	8	6	+2	9
12	Optik Rathenow	7	8	9	-1	10
13	Sparta Lichtenberg	6	8	10	-2	5
14	Tennis Borussia	7	7	7	0	9
15	Union Klosterfelde	7	7	11	-4	8
16	Makkabi	7	6	14	-8	8