Statistics / Football / Moldova. Liga 1 / FCM Ungheni vs Zimbru II

FCM Ungheni vs Zimbru II Statistics & Analysis

FCM Ungheni FCM Ungheni
Oct 09, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 75%
Zimbru II Zimbru II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FCM Ungheni Zimbru II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12682080

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zimbru II win · FCM Ungheni 1–2 Zimbru II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Liga 1
  • Fixture: FCM Ungheni vs Zimbru II
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): FCM Ungheni 1.32 — Zimbru II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 1 Liga 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vulturii Cutezători 9 7 1 1 22
1 Oguzsport 8 4 3 1 15
2 Iskra 9 6 0 3 18
2 FC Stăuceni 7 3 2 2 11
3 FCM Ungheni 9 4 2 3 14
3 Făleşti 7 3 1 3 10
4 Zimbru II 9 3 1 5 10
4 FC National Ialoveni 7 2 1 4 7
4 Floreşti 0 0 0 0 0
5 Univer Comrat 9 2 3 4 9
5 Victoria Bardar 7 2 1 4 7
6 Spartanii Selemet 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vulturii Cutezători 9 29 14 +15 22
2 FCM Ungheni 9 24 18 +6 14
3 Iskra 9 22 9 +13 18
4 Univer Comrat 9 17 19 -2 9
5 Zimbru II 9 16 21 -5 10
6 FC Stăuceni 7 12 9 +3 11
7 Spartanii Selemet 9 11 38 -27 4
8 Oguzsport 8 10 5 +5 15
9 Făleşti 7 7 7 0 10
10 Victoria Bardar 7 7 12 -5 7
11 FC National Ialoveni 7 6 9 -3 7
12 Floreşti 0 0 0 0 0
Liga 1 Moldova. Liga 1 Predictions