Wanderers vs Progreso Statistics & Analysis

Wanderers

Jul 11, 2026 - 21:00

2 1.38

0 1.22

xG Accuracy: 60%

Progreso

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Wanderers Wanderers ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1552361

Closing Odds 2.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Wanderers win · Wanderers 2–0 Progreso

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Progreso (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 5.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Wanderers (1X2)	41.2	46.9	-5.7
Draw (1X2)	29.3	28.4	+0.9
Progreso (1X2)	29.5	24.7	+4.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	42.4	+5.8
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	57.6	-5.8

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.4%. The difference — about 5.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Wanderers (1X2)	2.03	2.03
Draw (1X2)	3.35	3.35
Progreso (1X2)	3.85	3.85
Over 2.5 goals	2.26	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	1.66	1.66

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera División - Apertura
Fixture: Wanderers vs Progreso
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.2% · Draw 29.3% · Away 29.5%
xG (showing): Wanderers 1.38 — Progreso 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.4% · Implied: 48.1% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División - Apertura — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Racing Montevideo	28	14	10	4	52
2	Penarol	26	15	5	6	50
3	Deportivo Maldonado	28	14	7	7	49
4	Atletico Torque	26	14	5	7	47
5	Club Nacional	28	13	4	11	43
6	Wanderers	28	12	7	9	43
7	Liverpool Montevideo	27	11	9	7	42
8	Central Espanol	28	10	8	10	38
9	Albion FC	27	9	7	11	34
10	Cerro Largo	28	8	9	11	33
11	Juventud	28	8	8	12	32
12	Defensor Sporting	28	7	11	10	32
13	Cerro	28	9	5	14	32
14	Boston River	28	8	6	14	30
15	Danubio	28	4	13	11	25
16	Progreso	28	6	4	18	22

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Atletico Torque	26	44	30	+14	47
2	Deportivo Maldonado	28	42	27	+15	49
3	Penarol	26	41	21	+20	50
4	Club Nacional	28	40	36	+4	43
5	Liverpool Montevideo	27	36	24	+12	42
6	Racing Montevideo	28	35	22	+13	52
7	Albion FC	27	35	32	+3	34
8	Wanderers	28	35	34	+1	43
9	Juventud	28	32	38	-6	32
10	Central Espanol	28	30	33	-3	38
11	Cerro Largo	28	28	30	-2	33
12	Boston River	28	27	38	-11	30
13	Defensor Sporting	28	23	30	-7	32
14	Danubio	28	23	37	-14	25
15	Cerro	28	22	41	-19	32
16	Progreso	28	21	41	-20	22