Statistics / Football / Germany. 2. Bundesliga / SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld

SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld Statistics & Analysis

SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98
Sep 11, 2026 - 16:30
2 0.91
1 1.95
xG Accuracy: 57%
Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arminia Bielefeld SV Darmstadt 98 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7031718

Closing Odds 2.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result SV Darmstadt 98 win · SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Arminia Bielefeld (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Arminia Bielefeld (1X2) by about 17.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
SV Darmstadt 98 (1X2) 15.6 31.2 -15.6
Draw (1X2) 24.1 26.3 -2.2
Arminia Bielefeld (1X2) 60.3 42.5 +17.9
Over 2.5 goals 54.5 58.8 -4.3
Under 2.5 goals 45.5 41.2 +4.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 60.3% on Arminia Bielefeld (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 42.5%. The difference — about 17.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
SV Darmstadt 98 (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.68 3.68 0.0
Arminia Bielefeld (1X2) 2.28 2.28 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.34 2.34 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. Bundesliga
  • Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 15.6% · Draw 24.1% · Away 60.3%
  • xG (showing): SV Darmstadt 98 0.91 — Arminia Bielefeld 1.95 (total xG ≈ 2.86)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 47.4% · Implied: 37.6% · Probability edge: +9.8 pts · Est. EV: +20.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.6% · No 47.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (11.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
2. Bundesliga 2. Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 1. FC Nürnberg 5 4 1 0 13
2 Hertha BSC 4 4 0 0 12
3 1. FC Magdeburg 5 3 0 2 9
4 1. FC Heidenheim 4 3 0 1 9
5 VfL Wolfsburg 5 2 2 1 8
6 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 2 2 1 8
7 VfL Bochum 5 2 1 2 7
8 FC St. Pauli 5 1 3 1 6
9 VfL Osnabrück 4 2 0 2 6
10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 1 2 2 5
11 Karlsruher SC 4 1 2 1 5
12 Eintracht Braunschweig 5 1 1 3 4
13 Energie Cottbus 4 1 1 2 4
14 Arminia Bielefeld 5 1 1 3 4
15 Hannover 96 5 1 1 3 4
16 SV Darmstadt 98 5 1 1 3 4
17 Dynamo Dresden 5 1 1 3 4
18 Holstein Kiel 4 0 3 1 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 1. FC Nürnberg 5 15 6 +9 13
2 Hertha BSC 4 12 5 +7 12
3 Eintracht Braunschweig 5 12 12 0 4
4 1. FC Heidenheim 4 11 10 +1 9
5 VfL Wolfsburg 5 10 7 +3 8
6 1. FC Magdeburg 5 10 8 +2 9
7 Energie Cottbus 4 10 12 -2 4
8 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 8 10 -2 5
9 Arminia Bielefeld 5 8 10 -2 4
10 FC St. Pauli 5 7 7 0 6
11 VfL Osnabrück 4 7 8 -1 6
12 Dynamo Dresden 5 7 12 -5 4
13 Karlsruher SC 4 6 8 -2 5
14 Holstein Kiel 4 6 8 -2 3
15 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 5 4 +1 8
16 Hannover 96 5 5 8 -3 4
17 VfL Bochum 5 4 4 0 7
18 SV Darmstadt 98 5 4 8 -4 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Arminia Bielefeld 5 5.9 2.9 +3.0 4
2 Hannover 96 5 6.3 4.0 +2.3 4
3 VfL Wolfsburg 5 6.0 3.7 +2.3 8
4 Hertha BSC 4 7.5 5.6 +1.9 12
5 1. FC Heidenheim 4 7.7 6.0 +1.7 9
6 Holstein Kiel 4 5.6 4.1 +1.5 3
7 FC St. Pauli 5 5.7 4.3 +1.4 6
8 VfL Bochum 5 3.8 2.6 +1.2 7
9 Eintracht Braunschweig 5 9.4 8.5 +0.9 4
10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 6.9 7.0 -0.1 5
11 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 2.6 3.2 -0.6 8
12 1. FC Nürnberg 5 4.2 5.2 -1.0 13
13 Karlsruher SC 4 3.8 5.3 -1.5 5
14 VfL Osnabrück 4 5.7 7.7 -2.0 6
15 SV Darmstadt 98 5 2.0 4.3 -2.3 4
16 Dynamo Dresden 5 3.4 5.8 -2.4 4
17 1. FC Magdeburg 5 4.7 7.7 -3.0 9
18 Energie Cottbus 4 5.0 8.3 -3.3 4
2. Bundesliga Germany. 2. Bundesliga Predictions