Statistics / Football / Wales. Premier League / Holywell vs The New Saints

Holywell vs The New Saints Statistics & Analysis

Holywell Holywell
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.10
6 1.50
xG Accuracy: 28%
The New Saints The New Saints
Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 The New Saints The New Saints ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-6 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12706813

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result The New Saints win · Holywell 1–6 The New Saints
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Holywell vs The New Saints
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · Away 44.8%
  • xG (showing): Holywell 1.1 — The New Saints 1.5 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +2.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.4% · No 46.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI–Market Conflict - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 13 12 1 0 37
2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 13 10 1 2 31
3 Penybont 13 9 3 1 30
4 Caernarfon Town 13 8 2 3 26
5 Colwyn Bay 13 8 1 4 25
6 Barry Town 13 8 1 4 25
7 Cardiff MET 13 6 3 4 21
8 Airbus UK 13 7 0 6 21
9 Cambrian & Clydach 13 5 3 5 18
10 Llandudno 13 5 1 7 16
11 Briton Ferry 13 3 3 7 12
12 Haverfordwest County AFC 13 3 1 9 10
13 Ammanford AFC 13 2 3 8 9
14 Flint Town United 13 2 2 9 8
15 Trefelin 13 1 3 9 6
16 Holywell 13 0 2 11 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 The New Saints 13 44 6 +38 37
2 Caernarfon Town 13 37 15 +22 26
3 GAP Connah S Quay FC 13 30 9 +21 31
4 Barry Town 13 28 23 +5 25
5 Penybont 13 25 11 +14 30
6 Airbus UK 13 25 18 +7 21
7 Cardiff MET 13 24 16 +8 21
8 Colwyn Bay 13 22 15 +7 25
9 Llandudno 13 22 23 -1 16
10 Cambrian & Clydach 13 21 33 -12 18
11 Holywell 13 14 44 -30 2
12 Briton Ferry 13 12 22 -10 12
13 Flint Town United 13 12 25 -13 8
14 Ammanford AFC 13 10 32 -22 9
15 Haverfordwest County AFC 13 8 19 -11 10
16 Trefelin 13 8 31 -23 6