Statistics / Football / Wales. Premier League / Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town

Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town Statistics & Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 74%
Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Haverfordwest County AFC Caernarfon Town ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 03, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-12706773

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Caernarfon Town win · Haverfordwest County AFC 1–2 Caernarfon Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-09 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Haverfordwest County AFC 1.35 — Caernarfon Town 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +10.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 12 11 1 0 34
2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 12 9 1 2 28
3 Penybont 12 8 3 1 27
4 Barry Town 12 8 1 3 25
5 Caernarfon Town 12 7 2 3 23
6 Colwyn Bay 12 7 1 4 22
7 Cardiff MET 12 6 3 3 21
8 Airbus UK 12 6 0 6 18
9 Cambrian & Clydach 12 5 3 4 18
10 Llandudno 12 5 1 6 16
11 Briton Ferry 12 3 3 6 12
12 Haverfordwest County AFC 12 3 1 8 10
13 Flint Town United 12 2 2 8 8
14 Ammanford AFC 12 1 3 8 6
15 Trefelin 12 0 3 9 3
16 Holywell 12 0 2 10 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 The New Saints 12 38 5 +33 34
2 Caernarfon Town 12 35 14 +21 23
3 GAP Connah S Quay FC 12 28 8 +20 28
4 Barry Town 12 27 20 +7 25
5 Cardiff MET 12 23 13 +10 21
6 Penybont 12 22 10 +12 27
7 Colwyn Bay 12 21 15 +6 22
8 Airbus UK 12 21 17 +4 18
9 Llandudno 12 21 19 +2 16
10 Cambrian & Clydach 12 21 32 -11 18
11 Holywell 12 13 38 -25 2
12 Flint Town United 12 12 24 -12 8
13 Briton Ferry 12 11 20 -9 12
14 Ammanford AFC 12 9 32 -23 6
15 Haverfordwest County AFC 12 7 17 -10 10
16 Trefelin 12 5 30 -25 3