Statistics / Football / Wales. Premier League / Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town

Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town Statistics & Analysis

Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
Oct 03, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Barry Town Barry Town
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Barry Town Barry Town ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11236751

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Barry Town win · Caernarfon Town 0–1 Barry Town
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Caernarfon Town 1.28 — Barry Town 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.1% · Probability edge: +17.8 pts · Est. EV: +46.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 12 11 1 0 34
2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 12 9 1 2 28
3 Penybont 12 8 3 1 27
4 Barry Town 12 8 1 3 25
5 Caernarfon Town 12 7 2 3 23
6 Colwyn Bay 12 7 1 4 22
7 Cardiff MET 12 6 3 3 21
8 Airbus UK 12 6 0 6 18
9 Cambrian & Clydach 12 5 3 4 18
10 Llandudno 12 5 1 6 16
11 Briton Ferry 12 3 3 6 12
12 Haverfordwest County AFC 12 3 1 8 10
13 Flint Town United 12 2 2 8 8
14 Ammanford AFC 12 1 3 8 6
15 Trefelin 12 0 3 9 3
16 Holywell 12 0 2 10 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 The New Saints 12 38 5 +33 34
2 Caernarfon Town 12 35 14 +21 23
3 GAP Connah S Quay FC 12 28 8 +20 28
4 Barry Town 12 27 20 +7 25
5 Cardiff MET 12 23 13 +10 21
6 Penybont 12 22 10 +12 27
7 Colwyn Bay 12 21 15 +6 22
8 Airbus UK 12 21 17 +4 18
9 Llandudno 12 21 19 +2 16
10 Cambrian & Clydach 12 21 32 -11 18
11 Holywell 12 13 38 -25 2
12 Flint Town United 12 12 24 -12 8
13 Briton Ferry 12 11 20 -9 12
14 Ammanford AFC 12 9 32 -23 6
15 Haverfordwest County AFC 12 7 17 -10 10
16 Trefelin 12 5 30 -25 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions