Trefelin vs Cambrian & Clydach Statistics & Analysis

Trefelin

Sep 15, 2026 - 18:45

0 1.32

4 1.28

xG Accuracy: 33%

Cambrian & Clydach

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Trefelin Cambrian & Clydach ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7704833

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Cambrian & Clydach win · Trefelin 0–4 Cambrian & Clydach

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Trefelin (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Trefelin (1X2) by about 11.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Trefelin (1X2)	36.1	24.4	+11.7
Draw (1X2)	29.7	25.4	+4.3
Cambrian & Clydach (1X2)	34.2	50.2	-15.9
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	56.1	-7.9
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	43.9	+7.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 36.1% on Trefelin (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.4%. The difference — about 11.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Trefelin (1X2)	3.8	3.8
Draw (1X2)	3.66	3.66
Cambrian & Clydach (1X2)	1.85	1.85
Over 2.5 goals	1.68	1.68
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	2.15

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Trefelin vs Cambrian & Clydach
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Trefelin 1.32 — Cambrian & Clydach 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 44.0% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	The New Saints	10	9	1	0	28
2	Penybont	10	7	3	0	24
3	Caernarfon Town	10	7	1	2	22
4	GAP Connah S Quay FC	10	7	1	2	22
5	Barry Town	10	7	1	2	22
6	Colwyn Bay	10	6	1	3	19
7	Llandudno	10	5	1	4	16
8	Airbus UK	10	5	0	5	15
9	Cambrian & Clydach	10	4	3	3	15
10	Cardiff MET	9	4	2	3	14
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	9	3	1	5	10
12	Briton Ferry	10	2	2	6	8
13	Trefelin	10	0	3	7	3
14	Ammanford AFC	10	0	3	7	3
15	Flint Town United	10	0	2	8	2
16	Holywell	10	0	1	9	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Caernarfon Town	10	33	11	+22	22
2	The New Saints	10	26	4	+22	28
3	Barry Town	10	25	16	+9	22
4	GAP Connah S Quay FC	10	23	7	+16	22
5	Penybont	10	20	8	+12	24
6	Colwyn Bay	10	20	14	+6	19
7	Cardiff MET	9	19	11	+8	14
8	Llandudno	10	18	14	+4	16
9	Airbus UK	10	17	15	+2	15
10	Cambrian & Clydach	10	17	20	-3	15
11	Holywell	10	11	35	-24	1
12	Briton Ferry	10	9	19	-10	8
13	Flint Town United	10	8	24	-16	2
14	Haverfordwest County AFC	9	7	14	-7	10
15	Ammanford AFC	10	7	28	-21	3
16	Trefelin	10	4	24	-20	3