Penybont vs Briton Ferry Statistics & Analysis

Penybont

Sep 15, 2026 - 18:45

3 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 52%

Briton Ferry

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Briton Ferry Penybont ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7704735

Closing Odds 1.47

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Penybont win · Penybont 3–2 Briton Ferry

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Briton Ferry (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Briton Ferry (1X2) by about 22.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Penybont (1X2)	33.4	63.1	-29.7
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.6	+7.0
Briton Ferry (1X2)	37.0	14.3	+22.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	49.7	-1.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.3	+1.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 37.0% on Briton Ferry (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 14.3%. The difference — about 22.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Penybont (1X2)	1.47	1.47
Draw (1X2)	4.1	4.1
Briton Ferry (1X2)	6.47	6.47
Over 2.5 goals	1.91	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	1.89	1.89

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Penybont vs Briton Ferry
Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Penybont 1.26 — Briton Ferry 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.7% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	The New Saints	7	6	1	0	19
2	Barry Town	7	6	0	1	18
3	GAP Connah S Quay FC	7	5	1	1	16
4	Caernarfon Town	7	5	0	2	15
5	Llandudno	7	5	0	2	15
6	Penybont	7	4	3	0	15
7	Cardiff MET	7	4	1	2	13
8	Airbus UK	7	4	0	3	12
9	Colwyn Bay	7	3	1	3	10
10	Cambrian & Clydach	7	2	3	2	9
11	Briton Ferry	7	2	1	4	7
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	7	1	1	5	4
13	Ammanford AFC	7	0	2	5	2
14	Trefelin	7	0	2	5	2
15	Flint Town United	7	0	1	6	1
16	Holywell	7	0	1	6	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GAP Connah S Quay FC	7	18	5	+13	16
2	Caernarfon Town	7	18	9	+9	15
3	Cardiff MET	7	18	9	+9	13
4	The New Saints	7	17	3	+14	19
5	Barry Town	7	17	8	+9	18
6	Llandudno	7	15	7	+8	15
7	Airbus UK	7	13	9	+4	12
8	Penybont	7	11	5	+6	15
9	Cambrian & Clydach	7	10	10	0	9
10	Holywell	7	10	27	-17	1
11	Colwyn Bay	7	8	11	-3	10
12	Flint Town United	7	6	14	-8	1
13	Briton Ferry	7	5	12	-7	7
14	Ammanford AFC	7	4	16	-12	2
15	Haverfordwest County AFC	7	3	13	-10	4
16	Trefelin	7	3	18	-15	2