Haverfordwest County AFC vs Briton Ferry Statistics & Analysis

Haverfordwest County AFC

Sep 11, 2026 - 18:45

3 1.38

1 1.22

xG Accuracy: 60%

Briton Ferry

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7041226

Closing Odds 3.44

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Haverfordwest County AFC win · Haverfordwest County AFC 3–1 Briton Ferry

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 2.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Haverfordwest County AFC (1X2)	39.0	40.9	-1.9
Draw (1X2)	29.5	27.3	+2.2
Briton Ferry (1X2)	31.5	31.8	-0.3
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	49.7	-1.5
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	50.3	+1.5

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.5% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 27.3%. The difference — about 2.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Haverfordwest County AFC (1X2)	2.3	2.3
Draw (1X2)	3.44	3.44
Briton Ferry (1X2)	2.96	2.96
Over 2.5 goals	1.93	1.93
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	1.91

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premier League
Fixture: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Briton Ferry
Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
xG (showing): Haverfordwest County AFC 1.38 — Briton Ferry 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.1% · Probability edge: +3.7 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	The New Saints	7	6	1	0	19
2	Barry Town	7	6	0	1	18
3	GAP Connah S Quay FC	7	5	1	1	16
4	Caernarfon Town	7	5	0	2	15
5	Llandudno	7	5	0	2	15
6	Penybont	7	4	3	0	15
7	Cardiff MET	7	4	1	2	13
8	Airbus UK	7	4	0	3	12
9	Colwyn Bay	7	3	1	3	10
10	Cambrian & Clydach	7	2	3	2	9
11	Briton Ferry	7	2	1	4	7
12	Haverfordwest County AFC	7	1	1	5	4
13	Ammanford AFC	7	0	2	5	2
14	Trefelin	7	0	2	5	2
15	Flint Town United	7	0	1	6	1
16	Holywell	7	0	1	6	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	GAP Connah S Quay FC	7	18	5	+13	16
2	Caernarfon Town	7	18	9	+9	15
3	Cardiff MET	7	18	9	+9	13
4	The New Saints	7	17	3	+14	19
5	Barry Town	7	17	8	+9	18
6	Llandudno	7	15	7	+8	15
7	Airbus UK	7	13	9	+4	12
8	Penybont	7	11	5	+6	15
9	Cambrian & Clydach	7	10	10	0	9
10	Holywell	7	10	27	-17	1
11	Colwyn Bay	7	8	11	-3	10
12	Flint Town United	7	6	14	-8	1
13	Briton Ferry	7	5	12	-7	7
14	Ammanford AFC	7	4	16	-12	2
15	Haverfordwest County AFC	7	3	13	-10	4
16	Trefelin	7	3	18	-15	2