Statistics / Football / Wales. Premier League / GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cambrian & Clydach

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cambrian & Clydach Statistics & Analysis

GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC
Aug 28, 2026 - 18:45
3 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 47%
Cambrian & Clydach Cambrian & Clydach
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 04:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4945912

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result GAP Connah S Quay FC win · GAP Connah S Quay FC 3–0 Cambrian & Clydach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE10 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Cambrian & Clydach (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 9.2 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
GAP Connah S Quay FC (1X2) 41.9 55.5 -13.6
Draw (1X2) 29.3 23.8 +5.6
Cambrian & Clydach (1X2) 28.8 20.8 +8.1
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 57.4 -9.2
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 42.6 +9.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 42.6%. The difference — about 9.2 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE10 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE10) Implied Δ (pp)
GAP Connah S Quay FC (1X2) 1.67 1.67 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.9 3.9 0.0
Cambrian & Clydach (1X2) 4.46 4.46 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.64 1.64 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.21 2.21 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cambrian & Clydach
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
  • xG (showing): GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.44 — Cambrian & Clydach 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.1% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +21.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions